Phyrex
Phyrex|Mar 06, 2026 13:38
The non farm payroll data was mentioned in the weekly report. First of all, I would like to emphasize that there is a high probability that interest rates will not be adjusted in March, and the next adjustment is likely to be in June. Therefore, the non farm payroll data in February is not very important, but it will indeed affect some market sentiment in the short term. In the long run, the focus is still on the second half of the year. The data released today is slightly different from market expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%. Although this data is not high and historically low in the United States, the continued rise in unemployment rate has poured some cold water on the country's economic resilience. The market has expected that the number of non farm jobs will be lower than before, but in reality, it is not only lower than before, but also lower than market expectations, and surprisingly negative. This is the first time since October 2025. Recently, the market has been concerned that layoffs are caused by AI. Although the Federal Reserve has not recognized it, it can be seen from the financial reports of listed companies that there are signs of layoffs due to AI. The current data may trigger market panic about AI changing the labor structure. Wages are a more intuitive reflection of the US economy. Based on today's data, wages are still better than expected, with slight increases in annual and monthly rates relative to market expectations. This also indicates that the US economic environment is good, especially with overall tariff reductions. Finally, there is another important data, which is the retail data. This data represents the prosperity level of the US economy. Although today's data is higher than expected, it is not good, and there is a negative value. However, it may also be a problem with tariffs. After the tariffs are lifted, prices may decrease before shopping. Overall, the impact of one month's data is not significant. Let's continue to observe. Overall, today's data suggests that the US economy still needs to be viewed with caution. But the current focus is still on geopolitical conflicts. Bitget VIP, Lower rates and more generous benefits
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