It's time to talk about BTC's safe haven properties again. It seems that there is now a consensus that small conflicts are negative, while big crises are positive. Of course, there is no problem treating BTC as neutral assets such as gold or Swiss banks. But this positioning has a natural contradiction: The advantage of BTC happens to be its biggest political risk, BTC has always been positioned as a hostile asset at the national level, but if the world enters a highly confrontational geopolitical phase, BTC will definitely be a tool for capital flight and sanctions evasion, and encryption will also be labeled as an illegal financial system. Don't forget the sanctions of 2021. This kind of war hedging also has an extremely paradoxical investment logic, where a portion of BTC's expected value is based on the collapse of the US dollar system. In fact, the macro positioning of BTC now is fast safe haven asset, corresponding to slow safe haven asset gold. Short term safe haven driving up demand for BTC does not necessarily mean it will continue to be in demand. Once again, in the geopolitical stage, BTC's current role is still as a tool for capital flight and sanctions avoidance. Geopolitics can be seen as a small positive for short-term demand surges. To be honest, if BTC and gold are equated now, the risk is still relatively high. The 20-year release and the 23-year-old ETF have basically confirmed that the sustained upward trend of BTC is still driven by global liquidity and institutional funds, with a relatively low proportion of hedging.