The last time the media launched a Trump tariff war trade conflict manual at the time of the Greenland tariff war, and this time it produced a Trump President's War Conflict Strategy Manual, which is very interesting. Investor Distribution Guide: Step 1: Apply verbal pressure to the target and attempt to "reach an agreement"; The second step is to make public strategic preparations to enhance credibility, but it has not yet triggered comprehensive military action. If an agreement cannot be reached, proceed to the third step; Step 3: Major statements, decisive actions, or sudden policy changes usually occur on Friday evenings, after the stock market closes and before futures liquidity is fully deployed; Step 4: Expand the risk premium across asset classes. The futures market opened at 6pm Eastern Time on Sunday, with prices of various assets fluctuating sharply. Because everyone knows that President Trump likes to reach agreements. Therefore, the initial trend of stocks, bulk commodities and bonds is often reversed at least partially when the stock market opens on Monday, which Trump also knows; Step 5: Trump suggests that there will be an "eternal" conflict; Step 6: The market begins to incorporate long-term conflicts into pricing, no longer considering it as just a short-term, symbolic transaction. This is exactly the psychological change that President Trump's strategy aims to produce; Step 7: There is a signal of conditional downgrade. After the risk premium of stocks, bulk commodities and fixed income markets has risen significantly, Trump has always made deliberate mitigation remarks. The wording shifts towards conditional resolution. The statement emphasizes that negotiations are possible if certain conditions are met. Mentioning talks, discussions, or frameworks quietly emerged. This stage aims to test the other party and the financial market, while not giving up its strategic position; Step 8: Market and political feedback loop, to what extent the financial market itself becomes a part of the negotiation environment. Trump has consistently taken stock market performance, energy prices and inflation expectations as broader political considerations. There are some key thresholds for market damage, and when these thresholds approach, the probability of negotiation headlines appearing significantly increases. This is exactly when savvy investors start buying; At this point, retail confidence has collapsed; Step 9: Trading and narrative framework, where every major confrontation ultimately ends in a negotiated outcome and is packaged as a strategic victory. The structure of the agreement varies depending on the specific situation, but the narrative core remains consistent: exerting maximum pressure to force the other party to make concessions. If the Iran conflict follows an established pattern, then the conflict can only be resolved after sufficient leverage is demonstrated. This may include ceasefire linked to nuclear concessions, regional security arrangements with enforcement mechanisms, or sanctions adjustment plans based on compliance benchmarks; Step 10: Violent repricing and political victory parade. The final stage of Trump's conflict strategy does not end with the announcement of the agreement, but with the market's reaction to the agreement and the subsequent trend of public opinion. Re pricing is often drastic because it is not primarily driven by fundamental improvements, but by a sharp drop in risk premiums. Market fluctuations are not caused by perfect market conditions, but by a sharp decrease in the probability of the worst-case scenario occurring. It is important to note that since Trump took office nearly 13 months ago, every conflict he was involved in has finally ended with an agreement. All these transactions start with threats, then take action, double action, and ultimately ease the situation. Will it be the same this time?