The current macro trend resembles the 2021-2022 bear market structure: first breaking the downtrend channel high → trapping bulls and squeezing shorts → followed by a new round of decline. The bear market isn’t over yet, and the long-term outlook remains bearish. Currently, we are in a daily downtrend channel. On March 15th, there was an upward breakout, with the channel high around 72,000. Every subsequent volume-driven surge is essentially a breakout of the channel, a bull trap, and a move to liquidate shorts. Short-term trend forecast: Ideal March scenario: surge → 72,000–74,000 → then a major drop to 60,000. If it breaks below 63,000, bulls should exit, and the strategy shifts to a bearish outlook. ETH at 1,930: This level has significant liquidation activity. Approaching this level could be a good opportunity to go long. If a small timeframe shows a long lower wick, increased volume, and stabilization, followed by a quick rebound, it could form a bullish reversal—a great chance to go long.