Morgan Stanley strategists believe that unless there is a severe and sustained surge in oil prices, the conflicts in Iran and the Middle East are unlikely to shake their bullish views on the US stock market. The team led by Mike Wilson cited the average performance of the S&P 500 index in the months following each geopolitical risk event in their report, pointing out that such events have not historically led to sustained volatility in the US stock market. Strategists say that the reason for the bearish outlook on the latest Iran conflict is due to the significant and persistent rise in oil prices, which could harm what they believe is a strengthening business cycle. They wrote, "Unless oil prices soar and remain high in a historically significant way, recent events are unlikely to change our bullish view of the US stock market over the next 6 to 12 months." For Wilson, the healthcare industry remains the preferred defensive sector because cheap valuations, improved profits, and gradually fading policy shadows help attract broader investor interest.