Murphy
Murphy|Mar 01, 2026 06:03
Sure enough, using <10y_RP as BTC's 'historical average turnover cost' makes sentiment analysis more effective. When the price approaches <10y_RP (around $64,500), it represents the psychological limit of the market. After multiple dips below <10y_RP on 2/23-2/24 and 2/27-2/28, BTC climbed back above it again, showing that the bulls have a very strong willingness to resist at this sensitive level—unlike the previous direct collapse when nearing STH-RP. The biggest short-term uncertainty affecting market sentiment is the concern over the U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflict. With the situation clarified yesterday, the focus will now shift to the scope of the conflict, its duration, and its impact on crude oil prices. However, at least for now, we can see that without significant participation from institutions/market makers over the weekend, the bears lack the strength to push BTC quickly from '6 to 5.' Whether this observation holds will need to be confirmed when U.S. stocks reopen next week. If it does, then the path, logic, and resistance levels we mentioned in the article 'How Far Can This Rebound Go' will still stand.
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