Lao Bai|Feb 27, 2026 08:51
Congratulations on the launch of @ 42space!
Now with Polymarket, Opinion, and 42, there are some more fun arbitrage opportunities, especially since 42 is still a Bonding Curve and not a CLOB
For example, there is an overlapping market on this Opinion with 42, and upon closer inspection, one can find an arbitrage space. Of course, the amount of funds that can be accommodated is not large, only a few thousand U, and the funds still need to be locked in for that year
This market is the FDV for Polymarket coin issuance. There is a separate option in 42 to not issue coins (before the end of 26), and the odds are still 1:25. Of course, because the fund pool is very small, if you throw a 500U and run along the Bonding Curve, the odds will drop by 1:18 times, which means that the 500U may become 9000U in the future (if no coins are issued this year)
@Opinion labs xyz is a separate market, just betting on when Polymarket will release coins
The probability of issuing coins by the end of the 26th is only 63% (which is equivalent to a 1:1.59 odds), and the pool is close to 10 million US dollars
At this point, all you need to do is buy a 500U coin without issuing coins on 42, and at the same time, buy a few thousand U coin issued by the end of 26 on Opinion, such as buying a 5000U coin
If you really haven't issued any coins by the end of the 26th, your 42 500U will become 9000U, making a net profit of 8500U. Opinion will lose 5000U, resulting in an overall income of 3500U
If the coin is issued at the end of 26, the 500U of 42 will be reset to zero, and the 5000U of Opinion will become 7900U, resulting in an overall revenue of 2400U
No matter how hard it is, we just have to wait for a year:)
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