what the fuck! Reverse again? Isn't it just Jane Street who hits the market at 10 o'clock every day? Last night BTC just touched 70000 and emotions have just warmed up; As soon as it arrived at the opening window of the US stock market, it was poured directly Then the entire network will start spraying uniformly: Jane Street hits the market every day at 10 o'clock After the lawsuit was exposed, they dared not take action anymore All X tweets have been cleared It sounds ridiculous, but there hasn't been much bearish sentiment in the cryptocurrency market recently, and it can't rise no matter what So most people are still willing to believe that this dog is the one behind the organization's mischief But if you take a look at the funds, on chain data, and market structure together, you will find something even more heart wrenching: The problem may not be at all on Jane Street. What's really difficult is the black box of price discovery in the ETF era. 1、 Why is everyone's first reaction Jane Street? Because it is indeed in the core position: Top Quantitative Trading Companies Bitcoin ETF market making participants BlackRock IBIT Authorized Participant Adding the Terraform lawsuit to make it easier for the market to associate. In the encrypted world, if you are suspected once, you will be suspected ten thousand times. So the narrative automatically completes: Since it can be arbitrage, it can also be manipulated. 2、 Why does the '10 o'clock smash program' sound like real? Many people have indeed observed: Near the opening of the US stock market BTC often experiences severe fluctuations and even declines. So the story became complete: Institutional opening hedging inventory Thin liquidity pressure plate Clearing long positions Low level replenishment That sounds very reasonable. But: Reasonable ≠ true. 3、 More realistic explanations provided by data On chain analysis suggests that: Long term holders are selling It's not a single institutional pressure plate CryptoQuant points out that: Spot demand continues to weaken since October 2025 Capital flow: ETF net outflow for several consecutive weeks Accumulated approximately 4.5 billion US dollars No one is pressuring the price, But the number of buyers is decreasing. 4、 What truly amplifies volatility: changes in option structure The market is expanding into negative gamma regions. Translated into adult language: There used to be shock absorbers The shock absorbers are disappearing now When the price drops: ❌ No more buffering ✅ Instead, it amplifies the fluctuations Result: Pin harder Serial liquidation is more likely to occur This is not a conspiracy. This is the structure. 5、 ETF rewrites price discovery path Previously: Funds → Buy spot goods → Drive up prices Now? Funds → ETF Market maker → Hedge Hedging → Futures/Options/Swaps/Spot You see ETF holdings. You cannot see: Hedging positions Option Structure Basis arbitrage Internal net exposure Higher efficiency. Lower transparency. Price discovery in the middle layer becomes a black box. 6、 Why is the opening like a 'selling pressure time'? The opening window was originally: Cross asset rebalancing hedge against risks Macro capital flow And BTC is being treated as: Risk assets Liquidity trading instruments In addition: Market depth decline Thinner order book The fluctuations are amplified and appear to be manipulated. Actually, it's just the structure speaking. 7、 BTC hasn't changed, the market has changed The scarcity of Bitcoin has not changed. What has changed is: Requirement entry path Depth of institutional involvement Volatility amplification mechanism Transparency in pricing process ETFs make the market more mature. It also makes the market more difficult to understand. 8、 The real problem So the focus is not on: Has Jane Street hit the market. But rather: In the era of ETFs, the prices we see, Is it still pure market price? If you feel that the market is becoming increasingly difficult to understand recently, It's not that you've changed dishes. The game rules have been upgraded. Welcome to: The Bitcoin era driven by ETF+derivatives+macro liquidity.