How far can this rebound go? The overall consensus in the BTC market is that the current downward trend is not yet complete. Without clear multiple signals, any price increase can only be seen as a 'rebound'. According to on chain data, the average cost for short-term holders (STH) is $89000. Since its decline on January 14th, BTC has not made a single impact towards this target. This also indirectly reflects the weakness of the market. (Figure 1: Average cost at different holding times) Obviously, it is quite difficult to break through here in the short term (to get STH out of the loop). In this group, the cost of holding ultra short term chips ranging from 1w-1m is the closest to the current BTC price - $72000; Currently holds a total of 59.8 million BTC. This will be the first obstacle on the rebound road this time! From past data, it can be seen that almost all BTC downturns under the dominance of bear market sentiment revolve around this line. In human terms, it means that during a rebound, it can exceed this line, but as the chips unwind and selling pressure increases, it will fall back again. (Figure 2: Holdings of Different Coin Holding Groups) Meanwhile, around $78000 above it happens to be the average turnover cost for long-term holders (LTH) holding 1y-2y, currently holding a total of 255.7w BTC; This scale is much larger than the group of 1w-1m mentioned above. Although this also includes many long-term chips bought by institutions a year ago. But there is no doubt that the resistance of $78000 is definitely greater than that of $72000. For those who have already heavily invested and are continuing to increase their holdings in the hope of diluting costs during this correction, should they moderately reduce their holdings when approaching sensitive positions? This requires careful consideration by oneself. But for those who are currently only establishing long-term positions with light positions, I personally think they can ignore such short-term fluctuations and wait for the opportunity to continue increasing their positions. Patience is the most important bargaining chip for placing bets on the future. To avoid unnecessary misunderstandings, it should be emphasized that the data I am sharing does not necessarily mean that it will "rebound" or "not reach", but rather provides a different perspective for reference beyond the K-line at the trading level. If it doesn't arrive, it can only be said that the market is weaker than we imagine, and we should prepare in advance for the follow-up