深潮TechFlow|2月 26, 2026 02:40
[IMF Expects U.S. Debt Burden to Continue Increasing]
According to Deep Tide TechFlow, on February 26, citing Jin10 Data, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its Article IV consultation statement for the U.S. on February 25, predicting that the U.S. debt burden will continue to increase in the coming years. The Article IV consultation is an annual routine assessment and evaluation by the IMF of the economic performance and macroeconomic policies of its member countries.
The forecast data released in the statement shows that the U.S. federal government budget deficit as a percentage of the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) will decrease to 5.9% in 2025, rise again to 6.1% in 2026, and is expected to be 6% and 6.3% in 2027 and 2028, respectively. According to the forecast, the ratio of federal debt held by the public to U.S. GDP will rise to 100.7% in 2026 and further increase to 109.8% by 2031.
The statement noted that the rising ratio of debt held by the public to GDP, as well as the ratio of short-term debt to GDP, poses increasing risks to both the U.S. and the global economy. The International Monetary Fund expects that, considering the impact of various policy changes, the U.S. real GDP will grow by 2.6% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, while the forecast for the U.S. medium-term potential growth rate has been revised down by 0.25 percentage points.
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