Analysis: If ETH breaks through the key neck line, it is expected to rebound to the $2500 range

According to BlockBeats, on February 17th, although ETH has fallen by about 20% since February and once fell below the psychological level of $2000, on chain data and derivative structures show that the market is brewing a potential rebound. On chain data shows that in February, over 2.5 million ETH flowed into long-term hoarding addresses, and since 2026, the size of related address holdings has increased from 22 million to 26.7 million. At the same time, approximately 37.22 million ETH (accounting for over 30% of the circulating supply) are currently in a pledged state, and the circulating market continues to shrink. The fundamentals of the internet have also significantly improved, with a record high of 17.3 million weekly transactions and a median gas fee of $0.008, a decrease of about 3000 times from the peak in 2021. Technically speaking, ETH at the 4-hour level may be building a 'Adam and Eve Bottom' reversal form. If the price effectively breaks through the $2150 neck line, the theoretical target range points to $2473-2634. If the structure of recent highs and lows is lost, $1909 is the key short-term liquidity level. In terms of derivatives, the size of ETH open contracts has decreased to $11.2 billion, a significant decline from the peak of the $30 billion cycle in August 2025, but the estimated leverage ratio remains at a high level of 0.7. Data shows that approximately 73% of accounts are currently in a long position; The liquidation heat map shows that there is over 2 billion US dollars of liquidation pressure for short orders above $2200, while the liquidation scale of multiple orders near $1800 is about 1 billion US dollars, and the risk of short selling above is relatively higher. Analysis suggests that if ETH can achieve an effective breakthrough against $2150, it may open up upward space in the short term and target the $2500 line.