The on chain data points to the same conclusion: we have returned to the middle of the bear market in 2022 If you have gone through the complete cycle of the previous round, You will recognize the current market situation. The market is still fluctuating, But the force driving it forward has significantly weakened. The transaction is happening, But it's hard to see sustained buying. Prices fluctuate up and down, The market seems to have been drained of momentum. The signals given by on chain data, capital flow, and derivative structure are becoming increasingly consistent: The market is entering a structural stage similar to the middle of the 2022 bear market. That's not the lowest point, But it is the stage that tests patience the most. 1、 Price is sandwiched between key cost structures The current structure is very clear: ≈ 79000: Real market average ≈ 55000: Implemented cost across the entire network Being unable to stand on average means that the market has not yet recovered its strength. If it falls below the cost zone, it may trigger deeper risk release. A similar structure also appeared in mid-2022, when prices fluctuated repeatedly within the cost range until new demand gradually absorbed supply. In the absence of extreme shocks, the market is more likely to continue oscillating within a certain range and build a bottom over time. 2、 60k – 72k: The current undertaking area of the market This is a densely populated trading area formed in the first half of 2024, once again becoming a key receiving zone. The chips bought back then are still holding firm, indicating that this range has real demand support. As long as it continues to be absorbed: The market is establishing a bottom structure If lost: The deleveraging process may further escalate This area is essentially a confidence testing zone. 3、 Continuous suppression in the supply area above The main pressure comes from the concentrated area of trapped chips: 82k–97k 100k–117k When the price rebounds to these ranges, the selling tendency of the unwind market leads to the absorption of upward momentum. The distribution of costs on the chain shows that dense cost areas often form long-term supply chains, limiting the continuation of trends. This belongs to market structure behavior, not short-term manipulation. 4、 Insufficient new funding relay The low profit ratio of short-term holders indicates that there has been a general loss of funds entering the market recently. The upward trend usually relies on the relay of new funds, and currently: New entrants incur losses Old funds on hold Speculative funds ebb The rise lacks driving force. 5、 Institutional funds are reducing risk exposure Since the beginning of 2026, ETFs have experienced sustained net outflows, with a cumulative size reaching billions of dollars. The holding cost of institutions is generally higher than the current price, and the floating loss state suppresses the willingness to add new configurations. ETFs have been a stable source of demand in the past two years, but now outflows indicate a significant weakening of the demand side. 6、 Spot demand remains weak Exchange and on chain data display: Short term increase in trading volume during a decline Subsequently, it rapidly declined Lack of continuity in buying orders This structure is more like a lack of liquidity rather than active accumulation. 7、 The leveraged market has completed a round of cleaning The recent long liquidation has released the risk of excessive leverage. Current Characteristics of the Derivatives Market: Return of funding rates to neutrality There is no crowding in the position Decreased risk appetite The market driving force is returning to spot demand. 8、 The option market continues to price downward risk Option structure display: Increase in protective positions The demand for bearish protection is on the rise Long term volatility repricing Participants are more focused on risk management rather than directional bets. 9、 Macro liquidity still dominates price behavior Bitcoin still exhibits significant high beta liquidity characteristics. When financial conditions tighten and safe haven assets strengthen, risk assets come under pressure. The flow of funds to gold and reserve assets also reflects a decrease in risk appetite. The macro environment still dominates the logic of fund allocation. 10、 Why is it highly similar to the mid stage of the 2022 bear market The current market presents similar structural characteristics: ✔ Prices fluctuate within the cost range ✔ Institutions reduce risk exposure ✔ Insufficient demand ✔ Trapping chips to form suppression ✔ Release of leverage risk ✔ Market enters defensive mode Historical experience shows that the true formation of the bottom often requires time and demand repair to be completed together. The next three possible paths ① Recovering 79000 Risk appetite rebounds Re inflow of funds Trend recovery ② Below 55000 Risk release upgrade The market has entered a deeper stage of adjustment ③ Interval oscillation (most likely) Complete chip exchange through time Waiting for new demands to form The market is still operating. Liquidity has noticeably contracted. The turning point of the trend, It never depends on emotional release, And it depends on—— Who wants to catch chips before their patience runs out. This is exactly Mid year bear market of 2022 Experience left for the market.