Grayscale: Bitcoin short-term trading is more like a growth tech stock than gold On February 5th, Bitcoin hit around $60000, with a pullback of over 50% at its higher point. This pullback is closely related to the sharp decline in US tech stocks, reflecting the characteristics of Bitcoin as a growth asset rather than the safe haven properties of traditional gold. Core judgment: ▪️ Short term: Institutions are still in a transitional period, with much higher volatility and sensitivity to risk appetite than gold, and close to zero correlation with gold. Short term fluctuations reflect the characteristics of its growth assets. ▪️ Long term: It has a supply scarcity and independence similar to gold, but has not yet reached the status of a monetary asset like gold. If it successfully becomes a mainstream monetary asset, it may tend towards gold, exhibiting lower volatility and lower stock market correlation. Selling pressure source: ▪️ Coinbase premium has turned into discount, with a net outflow of approximately $318 million from US spot Bitcoin ETP since February, indicating that the dominant selling pressure comes from US investors. ▪️ There is no large-scale clearing of "OG Whale" in the on chain data, and selling orders are mainly released through the US stock ETF channel. Layout recovery direction: ▪️ The short-term outlook may depend on the progress of the US Senate CLARITY bill, but regulatory clarity remains a structural trend that will drive the adoption of stablecoins and tokenized assets. ▪️ The threat that quantum computing may pose to existing encryption technologies requires continuous attention to this challenge. The most direct beneficiaries: ▪️ Leading smart contract platforms such as Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) ▪️ Key middleware technologies such as Chainlink ▪️ Three innovative areas: privacy, perpetual futures, and predictive markets