We make money from cognitive experience, but also lose money because of cognitive experience: your 'experience' may be the biggest trap Those who have played Texas Hold'em have heard of the "GTO strategy" - it does not pursue winning every move, but rather ensures long-term invincibility through a set of mathematically balanced rules. It does not rely on guessing opponents, but first establishes itself in an invincible position. This is precisely what most investors lack the most: a set of "personal investment GTOs" that can navigate through bull and bear markets. How did we lose this game? The cognitive trap of 'wait a little longer' When the market falls and real opportunities emerge, we are kidnapped by 'experience': Falling to 1600, thinking to myself 'wait for 1400 to buy the bottom'; Falling to 1400 and fantasizing about '1200 full position'. This is not rationality, it is the 'cognitive inertia' repeatedly polished by fear and greed. We are not waiting for value, but for a perfect psychological comfort point - and it will never appear. 2. Extreme market conditions and cognitive dissonance The frenzy of a bull market and the despair of a bear market are two extreme forms of 'group hypnosis'. At this point, any individual cognition that relies on past experience will instantly fail. What you think of as the 'bottom' has a basement underneath, and what you think of as the 'peak' is only halfway up the mountain. Emotions take over everything, and discipline is completely lost. 3. No strategy, only stress response Most people's investment actions are just a series of "stress reactions": chasing after the rise, fearing the fall, and feeling anxious about the sideways trend. Entering depends on news, leaving depends on feeling. No position management, no exit mechanism, no risk red line - this is like driving on a highway without navigation and brakes. The key to breaking the game: from "feeling" to "rules" The core inspiration that GTO strategy gives us is not a specific formula, but a way of thinking: ·Adversarial instincts and acceptance of imperfections: Under the GTO strategy, sometimes good cards are used to place bets, and sometimes poor cards are used to deceive. This goes against intuition, but ensures system balance. The same goes for investment - you can't buy at the lowest point and sell at the highest point. Only by accepting this fact can we break free from the fatal temptation of pursuing the 'perfect blow'. ·Strategy is the 'autonomous driving program' you write for yourself It should answer at least three questions: When to buy? (Trigger condition: Is it the PE percentile of the index, the safety margin of individual stocks, or a trend signal?)? ） How much do you want to buy? (Position rules: How much is the initial position? How to divide the decline into batches? What is the upper limit?) When will it be sold? (Exit mechanism: Achieving target profitability? Trend breaking? Or fundamental deterioration?) ·Optimize your 'personal algorithm' The market is changing, and your strategy also needs to iterate like software. After each transaction, it's not just about profit and loss, but also about asking: Am I executing a strategy or an emotional manipulation Is this result a matter of strategy or luck Which parameter needs to be adjusted The ultimate truth In the infinite game of the market, those who rely on short-term cognition and experience will eventually become part of the cycle and be swallowed up by the tide. The person who possesses and adheres to a carefully considered and continuously optimized strategy is building their own Noah's Ark - it does not guarantee that you will catch every wave, but it can ensure that you will survive in any storm and ultimately reach the other shore. Bull markets create myths, bear markets eliminate heroes, only strategists can cross cycles.