Viewpoint: After BTC falls below the 100 week SMA, if it does not quickly recover, it will fall by 45% -58% within 30-50 days to around the 200 week SMA According to Ali Charts analysis, the 100 week simple moving average (SMA) has always been a key macro support level in the history of Bitcoin. Since 2015, every time Bitcoin falls below the 100 week SMA, it usually fails to quickly recover and further dips to the 200 week SMA, accompanied by a deep pullback of 45% -58%, lasting about 30-50 days. The past few cycles have shown the following: December 2014: After falling below the 100 week moving average, Bitcoin fell 55% and took about 35 days to reach the 200 week moving average; In November 2018, after the weekly closing fell below the 100 week moving average, the price dropped by 45% and was completed in about 28 days; March 2020 (COVID-19 crash): Within just one week, it fell from the 100 week moving average to the 200 week moving average, a 47% correction; May 2022: After falling below the 100 week moving average, Bitcoin fell 58% for approximately 49 days. As of last week, Bitcoin closed below the 100 week SMA again. If the historical pattern reappears, there may be a pullback of about 50%, and the downward target area is expected to be between $56000 and $50000, possibly between March and April.