飞凡
飞凡|Jan 31, 2026 09:50
Reviewing the synchronous sharp decline of BTC and gold, This is a liquidity squeeze triggered by a rare macro narrative mutation that can be experienced and reviewed. The trigger for everything is very clear. On January 30th, Trump suddenly announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the chairman of the Federal Reserve. Replacing the Federal Reserve Chairman means that the Fed's future interest rate path, policy independence, and even tolerance for inflation will have to be recalculated, As we have always mentioned, when faced with sudden path uncertainty, the first instinct of funds is to avoid risks, but this time the direction of risk avoidance is to hoard US dollar cash. So the cash as king model was restarted, and the risk premium quickly rose. The sudden outbreak of market sentiment immediately transformed into real financial pressure on the market, and two sets of key data directly locked in the valuation of risk assets: -The US dollar index (DXY) rose about 0.8% in a single day, reaching the 97.07 level. -The long-term interest rate has significantly increased, rising to 4.25% for the 10-year term and reaching 4.89% for the 30-year term. The economic logic behind the two sets of data is extremely fatal for risky assets, The upward trend of long-term interest rates, to put it bluntly, means that the cost of long-term funds suddenly becomes expensive, that is, the term premium increases, which is a very direct competition for the valuation of long-term assets such as gold and Bitcoin. The thing that many people did not react to during a sharp decline, and the most worthwhile point to review, is why gold actually collapsed during a safe haven period. The answer is also simple, it is the reflexivity of crowded trading that many cryptocurrency players have experienced. After a major surge in popularity, it will inevitably lead to overcrowding of bulls in the early stages. On the same day, strong US dollar and high interest rate expectations hit simultaneously, and funds that relied on expectations and followed the trend found that the wind had changed. In order to maintain profits, everyone chose the same action at the same time and sold directly. So, the collective rush directly triggered a stampede and a price avalanche. The same macro shock falls on cryptocurrencies and evolves even more bloody, as the cryptocurrency market comes with two amplifiers. A: ETF withdrawal outflow B: Leveraged liquidation Then, BTC's liquidity instantly dried up, and the impact cost sharply increased. In fact, this is also the most typical market state where cash is king. When people turn to cash at a macro level, their first reaction is to sell the assets with the best liquidity and easiest monetization, including gold ETFs and Bitcoin. A small liquidity run is commonplace for cryptocurrency players, but the transmission of market sentiment and the game of funds have taught traditional investors a real lesson.
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