The sudden sharp decline in big cakes, US stocks, and gold is quite suspicious; The current possible reasons include the geopolitical conflict between the United States and Iran, the closure of yen carry trades, and the escalation of the US Canada trade war These are only possible 'negative expectations', but one thing is certain - the' behavioral 'performance. BTC rebounded to less than 9.8w before coming down. We have analyzed the behavior of on chain investors, and found that holders who have been holding for 3-6 months choose to break even or leave with less loss, the funds on the exchange flee, and the sensitivity of long-term holders increases, which can illustrate the problem - they are unwilling to take risks and bet on the continuation of the market, which is a typical characteristic of low confidence and low mood. I don't know how the market understands macro events to generate expectations; But deducing 'emotions' in reverse through' behavior 'is certain and will not deceive us. During this period, I have been emphasizing, 'Time is not on the side of bulls!' But some friends only want to see what they want to see, and do not accept information that is unfavorable to the account, even if it objectively exists. If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry (Figure 1) The current BTC price has broken through the chip intensive area of $83000- $92000, turning 388w BTC into a locked up market. The former support zone has turned into a resistance zone, making BTC's "continuing to fill the gap of $72000- $80000" a highly probable event on the timeline. As of January 29th, a total of 870w BTC are in a floating loss state, so if you hold BTC now and are still losing, it is not shameful, and there are many institutions that are not much better than you. Everything has two sides, although there may seem to be a lot of pressure from above, a large part of it is long-term capital layout; As long as these chips remain stable, they will greatly limit the depth of BTC's decline. (Figure 2) From the perspective of capital structure, the Long Gamma structure for option market makers below $82000 is around $73000- $78000, which means that if BTC falls below $82000, the next support range is likely to be here. This interval also corresponds to the chip vacuum zone of the URPD mentioned above. I believe that this place will attract "demand" to enter, after all, for long-term funds, I believe that the next round of BTC can reach 150000, so there is an expectation of doubling by 70000; Extremely cost-effective! The above is only for learning exchange and not for investment advice! --------------------------------------------- This article is sponsored by @ bitget | Bitget VIP， Lower rates and more generous benefits