BitalkNews|Jan 29, 2026 07:42
IOSG: Why is Circle (CRCL) worth considering as a long-term investment target?
The stablecoin market is expected to have a total issuance of $2 trillion by 2030, and Circle is occupying a core position with its compliance and infrastructure layout.
Compliance moat and network effect: dual wheel drive
Circle holds 55 global regulatory licenses and has been conditionally approved by the OCC to establish a national trust bank by the end of 2025, which can provide digital asset custody for top institutions.
Robust reserve strategy: 85% short-term US Treasury bonds and overnight reverse repos within 90 days, 15% cash, managed by BlackRock or BNY Mellon, with real-time monthly audits available. This makes Circle an institutional level compliance benchmark.
Network effect: USDC market share has risen to 29%, with a net increase in traffic of $32 billion over the past year and on chain trading volume reaching $9.6 trillion. The CCTP cross chain protocol supports 23 public chains; Visa USDC settlement pilot with an annualized transaction volume of $3.5 billion; The annualized trading volume of encrypted cards has exceeded 18 billion US dollars, further promoting the penetration of emerging markets. Merchants and institutions accessing USDC has become a necessary choice, and the flywheel is accelerating.
Transformation of Profit Sources: From Interest Dependence to Infrastructure Services
Circle's current income is highly dependent on reserve interest and needs to be split with Coinbase, facing valuation pressure during the interest rate cut cycle.
The total revenue of CircleQ3 in 2025 is 740 million US dollars, with interest income of 711 million US dollars, but other income has reached 28.5 million US dollars, and QoQ has increased by 20%. And the annual USDC online trading volume reached as high as 4.6 trillion US dollars, providing huge space for diversification.
Diversified Path:
Transaction service fee: CCTP cross chain fee rate of 0.05%, with a total of 3.2 million US dollars for large-scale casting and sales, expanding linearly with the transaction scale.
RWA tokenization: USYC fund AUM of 1.54 billion US dollars, annual management fee of 0.25%, has been integrated into platforms such as Deribit as trading margin.
Long term second growth curve:
ARC public chain: The main network will be launched in 2026, vertically integrating the USDC settlement layer to capture the value of gas and MEV.
Circle payment network: has accumulated about 500 potential customers, aiming for 24/7 cross-border settlement, bypassing SWIFT, and future charging space far exceeding interest models.
Circle's revenue grew rapidly while operating costs grew slowly as the circulation scale increased. Once the proportion of infrastructure services increases, the profit structure will be healthier and more sustainable.
Circle is currently facing short-term pressures including lower interest rates, Coinbase revenue sharing, and IPO unlocking selling pressure.
In the long run, compliance, network effects, and infrastructure transformation give Circle an unshakable strategic position in the digital dollar system.
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