How high will the peak of the Golden Bull reach this time? This is my assessment (combined with historical patterns and current macro): • Baseline scenario (highest probability, 60%): The peak falls in the $5500-6200 range. At present, it has broken through 5600 and has a strong momentum, but high volatility and profit accumulation at the end of the bull market can easily lead to a flash crash of 20-30% before continuing to surge (similar to the peak around 2011). If the US dollar continues to weaken (due to Trump's policies and the Fed's dovish stance), the central bank continues to buy gold, and geopolitical/deficit conditions worsen, it can easily surpass 6000. Optimistic scenario (30%): 6500-7500+, if risk appetite completely collapses (Great Recession+reignition of inflation+super depreciation of the US dollar), replicating the crazy rise of the late 1970s. • Pessimistic/Peak Scenario (10%): Approaching or at its peak (5600-5800), if the Federal Reserve unexpectedly rebounds, real interest rates rise sharply, or risk assets rebound, triggering a sharp drop similar to the peak of 1980/2011. One sentence: This bull market is not over yet, and the peak is likely to be around $6000-7000 (mainstream consensus leans towards $6000+), but don't chase after it all The iron law of history: At the end of a parabolic curve, there must be a major wash, the difference is whether to continue to reach a new high after the wash, or to truly see a peak and turn into a bear.