Lao Bai|1月 24, 2026 12:10
Yesterday, I saw Kaito's new launch, and my first thought was - wc, $400M, damn, that's expensive! Is this the highest FDV on Kaito so far?
I wasn’t sure, so I asked Surf, and sure enough, it’s the priciest! Though you could add a 'one of the highest.'
But today, I had a change of heart. Maybe it’s worth a shot—could be a small non-consensus opportunity?
Here’s my thought process:
1. Sentient is backed by top-tier capital, an AI leader. It launched at $700M and later climbed to $1B. @openmind_agi is also backed by top-tier capital (Pantera + Coinbase), leading the robotics track. It’s a newer track, but its funding isn’t as high as Sentient.
If the launch is in the $500M-$700M range, making a 25%-50% gain wouldn’t be bad. TGE is expected in the next 1-2 months, and the new token will have 100% unlock. Capital efficiency seems decent.
2. The team knows how to make moves. I remember writing about them before—they first partnered with PI, then Circle. They’ve got connections both in the industry and with institutions. Maybe they’ll pull some strings for market-making too?
What’s even more noteworthy—this is one of Kaito’s first Launchpad projects since the X API pivot (first Bitway, then Openmind). If these two projects flop, it would be a fatal blow to Kaito. So, I’m guessing Kaito will carefully select and find ways to ensure the project doesn’t mess up at TGE.
3. Self-interest drives decisions. I’ve got a bunch of sKaito staked, plus YAPS and Capybara, and I’m a Surf member. I should be able to get a relatively decent allocation. Not participating feels like missing out.
If the launch price drops below $400M, just pretend I didn’t say anything
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