Don't ignore this signal anymore! Pain transfer, LTH sensitivity skyrockets How many friends still remember the indicator of 'investor price sensitivity'? The core logic is to quantify the "psychological pressure" or "degree of pain" that different investment groups experience when BTC prices fall. In December of last year, I wrote about a potential shift from bull to bear in 2026, where one indication would be an increase in price sensitivity among long-term holders (LTH) (see citation below). Due to the large number of chips held by LTH, it occupies a significant position in the overall distribution of weightlifting. There are two factors that can cause significant changes in this indicator: price and time 1. If BTC breaks $80000, it will cause a large number of long-term chips to shift from floating profits to floating losses; 2. Before the first quarter of 2026, a large number of short-term chips with costs between $107000 and $125000 will passively become LTH chips and be loss making chips; Currently, hypothesis 1 has not been triggered, but hypothesis 2 is slowly becoming a reality! (Figure 1) From the above figure, it can be seen that the blue line representing LTH price sensitivity is now completely higher than the red line (STH price sensitivity), indicating that the short-term floating loss chips have already been cut off during the decline, and instead, their price sensitivity has decreased; And this level of pain is slowly shifting to long-term chips. This is a signal that needs to be taken seriously! After all, since 2014, every critical point of the "bull to bear" transition, when the signal appears and becomes increasingly strong, means that potential risks are getting closer and closer to us. This indicator also confirms from another perspective what I said a few days ago: 'Time is not on the bullish side now,' at least for now (not considering 2027-2029, I am still firmly bullish on BTC over time). PS: Currently, I personally still hold around 40% of the position, all of which is BTC spot. If there is another rebound in the future, I will consider reducing my position again. If not, then hold on for now and I will continue to buy at a suitable location (such as when BRS=100) to lower the average cost. If your situation (cash flow) is different from mine, please carefully consider and take responsibility for your decision. ---------------------------------------------- @bitget VIP， Lower rates and more generous benefits