The agent of "BTC OG Insider Whale" refutes the bear market viewpoint: confirming the bear market requires meeting triple bearish conditions, and there is a significant difference in the current investor structure compared to 2022 BlockBeats News: On January 19th, Garrett Jin, the agent of "BTC OG Insider Whale", posted a long article on social media stating that some analysts have recently compared the current Bitcoin price trend to the 2022 market (bearish). There may be some similarities in the short-term price patterns. But if we examine the long-term picture, this comparison appears completely absurd. Garrett Jin explained that the current macro background is completely opposite to 2022, and the primary goal of capital at the beginning of 2022 is to avoid risks. At that time, Bitcoin presented a high-level distribution structure in a tightening cycle. In the current macro environment, the US liquidity index has simultaneously broken through both short-term and long-term downward trend lines, and a new round of upward trend is emerging. In addition, during 2021-2022, Bitcoin exhibits a weekly M-top structure, which is usually associated with long-term cyclical tops and suppresses prices for a long time. At present, the upward channel at the weekly level is breaking through. From a probability perspective, it seems more like a bear market trap before the rebound returns to the channel. Although the possibility of a bear market cannot be ruled out, it must be noted that the $80850/$62000 range has undergone sufficient consolidation and turnover. The previous chip digestion process provided a better risk return ratio for long positions: the upside potential was significantly greater than the downside risk. Restarting the bear market requires a new inflation shock or a major geopolitical crisis comparable in scale to 2022; The central bank resumes interest rate hikes or quantitative tightening of the balance sheet; At the same time, the price decisively and consistently fell below $80850. It is too early to assert a structural bear market until these conditions are met, and it is more of speculation than analysis. The biggest difference between the current (early 2026) and 2022 Bitcoin investor structure is the shift from retail led, highly leveraged speculation to institutional led, structured long-term holdings. In 2022, Bitcoin experienced a typical "crypto native bear market" driven by panic selling by retail investors and a series of strong leverage balances. Nowadays, Bitcoin has entered a much more mature era of institutionalization, characterized by stable underlying demand, locked supply, and institutional level volatility.