A Polymarket trader lost $2.36M in just 8 days. He made 53 predictions in the past 8 days: 25 winning trades 28 losing trades Win rate: 47.2% 👉How He Traded Focused on sports markets (NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA) Frequently traded spread markets Bought positions mostly at 40–60¢ Very large bet sizes, often $200K to over $1M per trade Positions were held to settlement, with no hedging or scaling In simple terms, these were high-conviction, all-or-nothing bets. 👉Why He Lost Winning trades usually returned +60% to +150%. Losing trades settled at $0 (-100%). Just two or three losing bets were enough to wipe out all prior profits. With this risk structure, a 47.2% win rate was not sustainable. 👉Key Lesson In prediction markets, being right is not enough. Spread markets are high-variance, and without strict position limits, a few wrong outcomes can destroy an entire account. 👉Takeaway This trader wasn’t consistently wrong. He simply allowed single outcomes to define his survival. In prediction markets, risk management matters more than conviction.(Lookonchain)