Bitcoin on chain data changes in the second week of 2026- continue to be a tech stock follower The conclusion drawn from on chain data in the past week was that BTC was neither in a state of rapid decline in a bear market nor in a mode of rapid rise in a bull market. Instead, it was oscillating under macro and political games until there was a fundamental change. So, was there a fundamental change this week? I'm sorry, there isn't. So this week, the trend of slight fluctuations continues to persist. What are the fundamental changes? It depends on the current players in the game, and the main narrative for 2026 should be three. 1. The monetary policy of the United States. 2. The midterm elections in the United States. 3. Geopolitical conflicts related to the United States. Although there have been some geopolitical conflicts in the past week, and even the United States has prepared to take action against Iran, it can be found that the impact on the market is not significant, because this level of geopolitical conflict still affects US inflation, which in turn affects US monetary policy. Even the events in Venezuela have not significantly changed the pattern of US stocks. The stock of BTC in the exchange in the past year Looking back at the on chain data, the stock of Bitcoin on the exchange has continued to decrease over the past week. This principle has been explained many times before. Although a decrease does not necessarily mean pulling the market, the decrease in stock indicates that most holders still have a positive outlook on the future of BTC, with a higher willingness to buy compared to sell, and there is not much pressure on the market. It represents that investors' emotions have not entered panic, but rather show signs of bottom fishing. By comparing the data of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the past week, it can be seen that a total of 7445 BTC were sold by spot ETFs in the past week, which is in a net selling state. Therefore, the decrease in this part of the exchange is not transferred to spot ETFs. Net traffic of BTC spot ETFs throughout history Moreover, based on the total net flow data of spot ETFs, although there was a large-scale net inflow at the beginning of last week due to the events in Venezuela, it turned into a net outflow starting from last Tuesday, and the outflow continued to increase. Even investors in Beled, which has the largest inflow in Venezuela, have lost two-thirds in the past week. Moreover, ETH's data is equally valuable. It can be clearly seen from the data of ETFs that traditional investors' interest in cryptocurrencies has not changed significantly. We all say that "the spring river water warms the duck prophet", but as a barometer, cryptocurrency ETFs are still in a semi dead state, maintaining net outflows every day. Although the volume is small and difficult to affect spot prices, at least we can see that there is currently no obvious positive news for cryptocurrencies. Traditional investors are mostly engaged in speculative behavior of chasing after gains and killing losses. However, from the BTC data transferred to the exchange, although it has always been a net outflow, indicating that the amount of transfers is greater than the amount of transfers, the data of transfers to the exchange has increased in the past week, especially over the weekend when there were signs of significant transfers to the exchange. At that time, it should be that the United States was preparing to take action against Iran. The number of BTC transferred to the exchange and net traffic in the past year But there is no sign of a significant increase in the peak value of transfers to the exchange, only a few days of continuous strong transfers. However, from the net flow data, it can be clearly seen that most of the inflows are covered by outflows, so the impact on the price is relatively low. This also indicates that although some investors are nervous, most investors still believe that around $90000 is a price that can be bought. 30 day average stock data of the exchange in the past year and a half One of the reasons why I came to the conclusion last week that it was not a bull market was because the 30 day average outflow was still too low and did not reach the FOMO sentiment of the previous three large outflows. The 30 day average has slightly increased in the past week, although it has not reached the FOMO level, it still indicates that after entering 2026, at least at this stage, investors' risk appetite is showing signs of increasing. However, the changes in the overall market are more affected by macro, political and economic factors. For example, Trump's tariffs also affect inflation, and the aforementioned geopolitical conflicts also affect inflation. The purely political field depends on Trump's practices. For example, the latest credit card ceiling is to improve the purchasing power of American users. If the 10% ceiling is established, it will stimulate users' willingness to purchase. Then there is the threat to Powell, which is actually not a good thing. It increases market uncertainty and investors are worried that the independence of the Federal Reserve will be challenged. In the future, the president will cover the sky, so there will also be some resistance. However, overall, all of this is based on the US monetary policy. So from the final conclusion, Bitcoin still maintains a certain correlation with technology stocks, cryptocurrency still does not have its own independent narrative, traditional investors are still in a wait-and-see state towards cryptocurrency, and the buying volume of funds in the cryptocurrency industry itself is still not strong. @bitget VIP， Lower rates and more generous benefits