时光预言机i|1月 09, 2026 08:00
US Crypto Regulatory 'Trial of the Century' Act Votes: Coin Circle Meets Key Crossroads
The Clarity Act in the United States will face a crucial vote on January 15th, and this regulatory bill, known as the "trial of the century" in the industry, is deeply affecting the nerves of the global cryptocurrency community.
The core controversy of this bill focuses on two dimensions:
One is the division of regulatory powers, which intends to classify most cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum as "digital commodities" under the supervision of the CFTC, and only tokens with securities characteristics will be under the jurisdiction of the SEC;
The second is DeFi regulatory rules. The Democratic Party advocates for the implementation of sanctions and accountability for operators in the front-end, while the Republican Party insists on a more relaxed regulatory framework. The game between the two parties has become the core variable for whether the bill can be passed.
The market's sensitive response to regulatory uncertainty has already emerged in advance.
After the news of the vote on the bill on January 8th spread, the cryptocurrency market quickly came under pressure. Bitcoin fell below the $90000 mark during trading, while mainstream currencies such as Ethereum and XRP collectively retreated in sync. The cumulative amount of market liquidation reached $465 million, which intuitively reflects the concerns of funds about the direction of regulatory policy implementation, and short-term risk appetite has been significantly affected.
In the long run, whether the bill is passed or not will set a completely different development path for the cryptocurrency industry.
If the bill is passed smoothly, it will completely eliminate the biggest compliance uncertainty that has long existed in the industry, clear the core obstacles for institutional funds to enter the market, and provide clear compliance operation paths for market entities such as exchanges and brokers, promoting the transformation of the industry from "wild growth" to standardized development;
At the same time, clear regulatory division of labor will reduce industry compliance costs, and the DeFi ecosystem can also adjust and develop within the framework of basic rules. The valuation stability of mainstream cryptocurrencies is expected to improve.
If the bill fails to pass, the cryptocurrency industry will continue to be mired in regulatory chaos and legal litigation. The regulatory power struggle between SEC and CFTC will continue, and the problems of inconsistent enforcement standards and vague regulatory policies are difficult to solve. The high compliance costs in the industry will suppress market risk appetite.
In this context, institutional funds will continue to maintain a wait-and-see attitude, and the slowdown in capital inflows will exacerbate market liquidity pressure. Compliance risks for small and medium-sized projects and platforms will sharply increase, and some market entities may choose to exit the US market, further exacerbating industry differentiation.
Simply put, the Clarity Act in the United States is a bill that sets rules for cryptocurrencies. It has already been passed in the House of Representatives and will go to the Senate for a vote on January 15th. Whether it can ultimately be implemented depends on this.
The core is to solve two key problems: one is who manages cryptocurrency, and the other is how to divide different encrypted assets.
Previously, the responsibilities of the SEC and CFTC regulatory agencies were unclear, and many projects and platforms were afraid of being fined for crossing the line.
Now the bill clearly states that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other closely related blockchain functions are under the jurisdiction of the CFTC as "digital commodities";
Tokens that are issued as "investment products" are under the jurisdiction of the SEC, and if they can be fully decentralized in the future, they can also be converted into "digital commodities".
Another key point is DeFi. The bill states that services that do not involve user funds, such as verifying transactions and developing self hosted wallets, do not need to be registered according to traditional financial rules, providing some compliance space. However, the two parties have not yet reached an agreement on the specific regulatory intensity. The Democratic Party wants to control it more strictly, while the Communist Party thinks it should be relaxed.
For the market, this matter has a significant impact.
As soon as the news came out on January 8th, Bitcoin fell below $90000, and many people closed their positions and lost a total of $465 million, just because they were afraid of voting variables.
If the bill is passed, the cryptocurrency industry will have a clear compliance path, institutional funds can come in with confidence, and exchanges and project parties will no longer have to guess regulatory rules;
If it fails, the state of regulatory chaos will continue, institutions will not dare to enter, and some platforms may withdraw from the US market.
Essentially, this is an attempt by the United States to establish rules for the cryptocurrency industry, both to protect investors and not to miss the development opportunities of Web3. The voting results will not only affect the cryptocurrency industry in the United States, but also provide reference for global cryptocurrency regulation.
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