Oh no, the December non farm payroll report is another 'expected kill'. ❓ It's not the scary scene of 'data being scattered and the market collapsing', but the hidden torment of the market fluctuating despite the calm news. On the surface, the predicted data appears unremarkable: About 60000 new jobs were created, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.5%, which even looks better than November. But what the market account feels may be another matter. Fluctuations surge, hold your breath, and other unexpected events. Many people want to know: Will there be a sudden explosion of thunder Is there still an unrealized bearish trend I'll give you a more direct answer: it's not waiting for bombs, it's waiting for 'poor expectations' to be executed. Let's take a look at a signal that is easily underestimated: ADP employment (small non farm): Only 41000 new jobs were added, significantly lower than expected. The market appears calm on the surface, but funds have secretly reduced their positions, waiting for confirmation or face recognition from the non farm landing. Not everyone is betting on the direction, most players are waiting for the release of data to cash out their layout. And even a mild deviation from this data can trigger a huge earthquake. Why is' gap 'the key The more consensus there is, the more the market goes in the opposite direction: 60000 new jobs predicted? Actually, 50000 or 70000 yuan can stir up market sentiment. Is' good 'data bearish? If the employment performance meets expectations or even slightly stronger, the market will worry that the Federal Reserve will not be in a hurry to cut interest rates! What drives the market crazy is not necessarily data, but the gap between data and expectations. Waiting with breath holding is never an answer, it's an unexpected drop.