[CME 'FedWatch': 86.7% Probability the Fed Will Keep Rates Unchanged in January Next Year] According to CME 'FedWatch': There is a 13.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in January next year, and an 86.7% probability of keeping rates unchanged. By March next year, there is a 40.7% cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, a 54.4% probability of keeping rates unchanged, and a 5.0% cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut.