Adam@Greeks.live|12月 23, 2025 03:39
This week is Christmas holiday week. The U.S. stock market will be closed on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Both European and American institutions and individual investors will stay away from the market, and this situation will generally last until after New Year's Day. This Friday, the 26th, marks the annual options expiration, with over 50% of total open interest set to expire.
Most institutions are choosing to roll over positions early. Since last week, the implied volatility (IV) of major expirations has started to decline significantly, and the proportion of block trades has also increased.
With volatility dropping, the Christmas market effect, and the annual rollover of positions, these three factors combined have led to a more than 5% decline in implied volatility for major Bitcoin expirations over the past month. Short- and medium-term IV has dropped by over 10%, while ETH's IV has seen an even greater decline.
All this data indicates that market expectations are relatively subdued. The market's outlook for the next two weeks points to low volatility. Just as we predicted last month based on this data, December has been a low-volatility market, and we believe the next two weeks will continue to be low-volatility, with a high probability of a slow downward trend.
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