Phyrex|Dec 20, 2025 09:34
A very realistic thing is that the increase in electricity prices in the United States is almost twice that of inflation, and this round of electricity price increase is not a traditional energy cycle, but driven by structural demand changes.
The increase in electricity demand this round is partly due to AI data centers, cloud computing, and high computing power. On the other hand, power grid upgrades, energy storage construction, and the integration of new energy into the grid have also pushed up transmission and distribution costs. And this cost increase is almost reversible, unless the United States abandons its plans to become an AI center.
For Bitcoin, the impact of this change is even more evident. BTC is an asset with electricity as its core production factor. When electricity prices continue to rise, the marginal cost of computing power in the entire network is systematically raised, and the breakeven point of mining shifts upward accordingly.
But from my personal perspective, this will not lower the long-term value of BTC, but rather continuously raise the lower limit of BTC prices. With the increase of electricity prices, inefficient miners and high cost miners are forced to withdraw, and computing power is concentrated towards more efficient and lower marginal cost entities, forcing the supply curve of BTC to rise in the long-term dimension.
Of course, some people say that mining in the United States is not a problem, but it should be noted that the electricity consumption brought by AI and computing power is also seeking low-priced electricity bills outside the United States. In the long run, the increase in global average electricity costs is inevitable, and ultimately, it is highly likely that the prices of products based on electricity will increase.
To put it simply, the downward range of BTC prices will gradually increase with the rise of electricity prices. Traditionally, a 20% decrease in the average shutdown price is likely to be the bottom line of Bitcoin prices.
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