The big conspiracy behind the plummeting of the pancake! The Federal Reserve presidential election is affecting the market, and non farm payroll data is about to be released. What is the fate of the cryptocurrency market? TL;DR The pancake continues to decline, and the rebound is only a temporary bait. Short term investors can exit during a rebound, while long-term holders need not worry. The election of the new chairman of the Federal Reserve has stirred up market sentiment If Hassett wins, it's super good news If Walsh wins, the market may stabilize, but the cryptocurrency market still faces short-term fluctuations. The non farm payroll data will be released tonight, which may strengthen the expectation of interest rate cuts next year. MSTR and BMNR large funds are still increasing their holdings. Bear market patiently waits for the bottom, while the long term remains bullish. After watching it, it turned out to be a real bear. Yesterday, it rose sharply during the day, but immediately fell through the entire market at night. The current trend of Da Bing is really similar to that of the knockoffs in a bear market, with some small cost rebounds mixed in during the decline. In fact, these rebounds break your will and make you less painful during the decline. I have seen too many knockoffs fall 10 points and bounce 1 point like this, eventually completing a long-term zero trend. Da Bing is like this now. When you wake up, you can always see lower prices. It can only be said that the remaining days of 2025 are not easy to endure. With insufficient liquidity, it is very likely that now is the process of Gou Zhuang watching Xiao San suffer and surrender. I think for short-term traders, the current market situation allows them to find opportunities to go out during the rebound, and then come in when the bottom of certainty appears, This may still preserve the vitality; For long-term hoarders, there is no need to be so nervous about the current fluctuations, because the market will surely prosper again in the future. If you see a 200000 yuan market in 5 years, whether it is 80000 yuan or 90000 yuan now is actually not important. What matters is that you are still in this car. Talking about the decline last night, I also mentioned on Twitter that in the competition for the new Fed emperor, Hassett's victory rate was overtaken by Walsh, which is absolutely a very negative event. Hassett has been the image of Trump licking the dog for a long time. Before FOMC last week, it was also a famous saying that the interest rate was cut by 50, which basically shows that he is the embodiment of Trump's will. Trump can only give to FOMC even if he changes his words to maintain the independence of the Federal Reserve these days When it comes to giving suggestions, it's just a show. In the future, it's just a matter of pulling votes from Wall Street. It's basically certain that if he eventually comes up, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates crazily next year, with a force similar to that of Bernanke, from 5.25% to 1%. Moreover, the independence of the Federal Reserve will no longer exist, and the Ministry of Finance will replace it. Currently, the candidates for the new Federal Reserve Chairman are Treasury Secretary Besson, and the future energy level is Hassett Besson Trump. Although the loss of independence of the Federal Reserve will bring great uncertainty to the US stock market, for cryptocurrency, the stimulus of the Federal Reserve's crazy interest rate cuts is the most direct. Cryptocurrency is not a US dollar asset, and its relationship with US dollar credit is not significant, so Hassett's move is definitely positive; Last night, the victory rate of Walsh came to 49%, and that of Hassett dropped to 40%. Walsh has always advocated the independence of the Federal Reserve, backed by the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, and is basically someone who has been put in by Wall Street. Last week, Trump directly pushed Walsh up, saying that he currently ranks first in the competition, and that he supports Trump's interest rate reduction plan, which is an important reason why Walsh is anti superior to Hassett. But compared with Trump, Walsh still has a policy tendency of seeking stability. He advocates interest rate reduction in coordination with scale reduction, and that inflation is the choice of the Federal Reserve, so that the printing of money can be quiet and the interest rate can be lower. Perhaps for traditional finance, Walsh is a better side, and the market does not have to worry too much about uncertainty. The Federal Reserve may still exert pressure on the Treasury and control the discourse, but for the cryptocurrency market, this effect is not as strong as the above, and that's the difference. Another non farm payroll data for November will be released tonight, which is two months after the non farm payroll. October's data is completely lost, so there is no previous value this time, only an expected increase of 50000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.5%. If compared to September's non farm payroll of 119000 and an unemployment rate of 4.4%, it can only be said that this expectation is still very low. It is very likely that there will be data similar to September, which will significantly exceed expectations. This is definitely a bearish trend for the interest rate cut in January next year. The trend last night was basically to digest this expectation in advance, and the unemployment rate will increase again compared to September. If this number can meet or exceed expectations, it will be a good news for the cryptocurrency market and strengthen the interest rate cut next year. Expected, but considering the prolonged government shutdown and many data collection issues in November, For example, the weight of household surveys has been adjusted, and the official has stated in advance that there may be deviations in the data. However, there will still be non farm trading hours tonight, and market volatility will be significant. Although the cryptocurrency market has fallen sharply, DAT company is still buying. MSTR added another $1 billion in positions last week, and BMNR is also adding positions. Market data shows that BMNR may still have $10 billion to invest in the market. These two brothers have now entered a dead end mode, similar to contract buying. They must buy and have market value as their unlimited bullets, so that more institutions can follow suit. They no longer look at the fundamentals of the cryptocurrency market, they just bet on financial management level and use financing to resist bear markets. MSTR has gone through this way before. Although it is possible that the MSCI index will be proposed in January, it is still profitable now. The Nasdaq 100 has also been maintained, and it depends on BMNR's ability to resist bear markets. We can't replicate the miracle of MSTR anymore. Seeing Tom Lee shouting 150000 or 200000 every day, it feels like he's losing money that's not his own. Does he really have insider information; Last night, there were a lot of outflows from ETFs, with a large market share of 350 million yuan and Ethereum at 224 million yuan. It can be considered that the US stock market has closed its doors. However, the good news is that BlackRock has not experienced any capital outflows, indicating that ETFs are still the main force holding on, and the younger players are panicking. Finally, let me show you the chart of big cake prices predicted by major institutions at the beginning of the year for the end of 2025. Let's see who has the most swollen face and avoid pitfalls next year!