链研社|AI First🔶💧
链研社|AI First🔶💧|Dec 16, 2025 04:39
Starting from 2026, the US stock market will implement 23 hour trading and high-quality US stock assets will be put on chain, which will be a key infrastructure upgrade connecting traditional finance (TradFi) and on chain finance (DeFi). It will be a great acceleration for on chain US stocks 1. Key impact: Addressing liquidity black holes and price differentials during non trading hours At present, although the US stocks on the chain claim to be traded 24/7, during the closing period of the US stock market (especially during the Asian session), due to the inability of market makers to hedge risks in traditional markets, the liquidity on the chain is extremely poor, with significant slippage and spread. Current situation: On weekends or at night, the prices of on chain Apple (AAPL) or Tesla (TSLA) tokens may be severely disconnected from their true value due to a lack of liquidity, making them easy to manipulate or even less deep than meme's trading depth. After implementation in 2026: 24/7 liquidity injection: Market makers can hedge in the US stock market at any time within 23 hours, with a smoother price curve. Market makers can provide deeper liquidity on the chain 24/7 without worrying about extreme risks. Narrowing price difference: The bid ask spread of on chain tokens will significantly decrease, making them not only tradable but also low-cost. The infrastructure cost of cryptocurrency trading is much lower than that of traditional US stocks, which is particularly advantageous for traders during the Asian trading period. 2. Impact at the DeFi protocol level: oracle and lending security On chain finance heavily relies on oracle machines (such as Chainlink and Pyth) to obtain asset prices. At present, the oracle can only provide "closing prices" or off exchange and night trading data based on extremely low liquidity during the US stock market closure, resulting in severe price distortion. Safer loan collateral: Eliminating liquidation blind spots: If there is a significant bearish trend in the US stock market after hours (such as a financial report crash), almost every month there will be a company's financial report crash, and the sharp price difference will pose a risk of bad debts. DeFi lending protocols, which cannot obtain accurate quotes before the opening of the next day, may lead to liquidation cascades or bad debts caused by price jumps at the moment of opening. After 23 hours of trading in the US stock market, the oracle can provide real-time pricing: it will be able to provide almost real-time official market prices, enabling the smooth operation of on chain clearing mechanisms and significantly reducing systemic risks. The explosion of synthetic assets and derivative products: Agreements such as providing derivatives and synthetic US stock trading would have taken on additional risks in the original 24-hour market, eliminating the need to set extremely high rates to prevent price attacks during market closures, and resulting in a surge in trading volume. 3. Arbitrage mechanism: true 'price anchoring' On chain US stock tokens (such as bTokens issued by Backed Finance) need to be tightly anchored to the underlying stock prices. Real time arbitrage window: 23 hour trading means arbitrageurs can move bricks between on chain tokens and traditional stocks almost 24/7. Once the on chain price deviates (such as a 1% premium), arbitrage robots can instantly buy stocks from securities firms, mint and sell tokens on the chain. Result: The prices of US stocks on the chain will become extremely accurate, and the depth will also be greatly improved, 4. Remaining challenge: The "disappearing hour" and settlement cycle Although the trading time has been extended to 23 hours, there are still two key friction points: Daily 1-hour trading halt: During expected trading hours (such as 1:30 AM -11:30 PM Eastern Time), there will still be a settlement/maintenance window of approximately 1 hour. Within this hour, on chain liquidity may still instantly dry up, potentially becoming a high-risk window for hacker attacks or price manipulation. Mismatch in settlement speed (Atomic vs T+1): On chain: Transactions are "Atomic Settlement", where payment is made and delivery is made immediately. US stocks: Even if trading hours are extended, the settlement of underlying stocks still follows the T+1 (trading day+1 day) system. Impact: This means that after receiving USDC from users on the chain, the issuer still needs to wait for 1 day to complete USD settlement on the bank side. This mismatch in capital efficiency limits the large-scale and rapid inflow and outflow of funds. 5. Summary and Prospect The 23 hour trading of the US stock market in 2026 is a catalyst and shot in the arm for the RWA (Real World Assets) track, and it is expected that the market size will reach 10% of the US stock market, which is equivalent to doubling the size of the previous cryptocurrency market. 23 hour trading eliminates the biggest disadvantage of on chain US stocks - liquidity risk during non trading hours. A more obvious trend in funding: Crypto Native Funds Reflux: Stablecoins, a large amount of idle funds in the cryptocurrency industry, may be allocated more to on chain US stocks as interest bearing assets, as the friction costs of entry and exit have been significantly reduced. The preferred betting option for non US US stock investors is to directly trade US stock tokens with sufficient liquidity on the chain using USDC, which may be more convenient and efficient than opening a traditional US stock brokerage account, while also avoiding the tax on CRS US stock profits.
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