Enjoyed this discussion with the team at @RenMacLLC on the Fed and the outlook https://youtube.com/watch?v=jFwYo-1rt4E We talked about how the latest projections show most officials' rate projections assume very little further upward movement in the unemployment rate. Seven participants project the unemployment rate moving up to 4.6% in Q4 2025, up from three in the September forecast round. But only one participant has the unemployment rate at 4.6% one year later -- down from three in September.(Nick Timiraos)