Let's talk about something everyone loves to hear, is it a bear market or a bull market now? Before answering, let me list what will happen in the next one or two months On December 16th, the November unemployment rate and non farm employment were announced. The expected unemployment rate has not yet been released, with a previous value of 4.4 November CPI released on December 18th, with no previous value yet, expected value On December 19th, during the Japanese interest rate meeting, the previous value was 0.5, and the expected value has not yet been released. December unemployment rate and non farm employment data released on January 9, 2026 1.13 Release of December CPI 1.29 Federal Reserve Interest Rate Meeting (Attention) ⚠️ There will be Christmas and New Year's Day in between, and the market will definitely have low liquidity at that time Currently, it has been fluctuating for almost a month between 83-94. We need to endure the following events listed above. Do you think you will enter a deep bear like 22 years ago? That is to say, smashing 8 or even 7 or even lower. That's not enough either. Because the interest rate hike cycle will not begin, nor will it be reduced due to recession like in 2007-08. Just no new positive expectations hype, in other words, it continues to fluctuate. New market trading expectations such as volatility. So it is still a temporary bear market at present. This morning, Lao Bao said that he has no plans to cut interest rates in January. He must say so in his position because he doesn't have any data at the moment. Didn't he say in October that he wouldn't cut interest rates in December, but what was the result? Still down, expectation management is necessary. There will be new market expectations only after the data for November and December is released. In addition, Trump announced the new chairman of the Federal Reserve around Christmas or New Year's Day. When the new chairman speaks, the market may not listen to Bao too much. The new chairman's performance is still quite dovish. You can pay attention at that time. Of course, when will it be announced? See Trump's mood After the New Year holiday in January, the data became basically clear, and the market trend of interest rate cuts can also be predicted. Americans usually start working after New Year's Day and also after the 16th At the same time, in January, the liquidity of bond purchases gradually returned to some extent. And I remember there was another encryption policy that came into effect in January, which was also a positive development. After around October 10th, the market will become clearer. During this period, I cannot guarantee whether the trend will be further explored? Just like the picture I drew. Because I don't know about next week's data situation now, and there are also holidays. Large fluctuations are inevitable. There may be a sudden downturn in liquidity, poor market sentiment, and a possible price drop. As long as it doesn't break 80-82, there won't be any problem. Even if the price briefly drops below 8 and quickly recovers above, it's still okay if the emotions can be stabilized. I'm afraid of emotional panic on the chain. Of course, during this period, if data is released and the market believes it is favorable for a January interest rate cut, coupled with statements from the new chairman and other officials of the Federal Reserve, emotions will stimulate price recovery. But 94 is a hurdle. To truly see a trend rebound, it takes at least 101 to stand firm. This has been mentioned multiple times before. At this point, the bear market (repair market) is over. Slowly endure these days, you can learn more and change your mind. Pay attention to the important information mentioned above. Speaking of transactions. Judging from personal investment preferences, the opportunity on the right-hand side of this W-shaped trend is still early. The above personal thoughts are welcome for communication and exchange, not investment advice.