I originally wanted to stay up late to watch Powell's press conference, but thinking that the old dog couldn't play new tricks, it was better to sleep peacefully (this is just pretending to be too tired). Most of the previously anticipated scenarios have been achieved: 1. As expected, the Federal Reserve has lowered 25 basis points, with a total of 75 basis points lowered three times during the year. 2. It is very rare for three members of the voting committee to oppose it. Milan opposed 25BP because they wanted a more drastic reduction of 50BP, while the remaining two opposed it because they felt that the rate cut should not be made. 3. It may be felt that at this time, even if he speaks hawkishly, the market is not buying and there is Hassett hedging. Although Powell hinted at suspending interest rate cuts, he is more dovish than expected. But as the quote suggests, Powell's dovish tone can only briefly cheer the stock market, which is not a good thing for the bond market. 4. In addition to the expected three points, it is quite unexpected that bond purchases have already been restarted this time, with a target of repurchasing 40 billion yuan in the next 30 days, earlier than expected. So this measure has hedged against three possible declines, so US Treasury bonds are currently relatively stable. 5. The most critical dot plot is biased towards the dove, showing a rate cut once in 2026, once in 2027, and unchanged interest rates in 2028. Compared with the September grid chart, there is an increase of one person who believes that interest rates should be raised in 2026, a decrease of two people who maintain interest rates unchanged, an increase of two people who believe that interest rates should be lowered, four people who have cut interest rates twice, three people who have cut interest rates three times, one person who has cut interest rates four times, and one person who believes that interest rates should be lowered six times. Although the overall neutral interest rate remains unchanged, the situation shows a major split within the Federal Reserve, possibly even the largest rift in 37 years. Three people oppose interest rate cuts, while seven advocate for no or even more cuts, indicating that the committee no longer has a consensus basis. In this state, the Federal Reserve may find it difficult to continue easing in the short term. After the epidemic, long-term interest rates have risen from 2.5% to 3%. The era of low interest rates may have completely ended, and the future neutral interest rate will be 3%. This means that even in normal economic times, it is difficult for mortgage rates and corporate bond yields to return to their previous low levels. Overall, this FOMC is actually playing a water game, using hawkish rhetoric of suspending interest rate cuts to appease anti inflation concerns, while using RMP (Reserve Management Bond Purchase) implicit QE to ease liquidity demand in financial markets.