I have always believed that the probability of economic recession is not determined by the chairman of the Federal Reserve, but by inflation. The responsibility of the Federal Reserve is to maintain inflation at 2% and maximize employment. Between these two goals, the Federal Reserve actually does not have much discretion. It is more like being "forced" to make choices under established economic conditions, rather than actively deciding the direction of the economy. If inflation stickiness is strong and consistently above 2%, regardless of who the chairman is, the Federal Reserve must choose to maintain high interest rates or even continue tightening. If high interest rates persist long enough, corporate financing costs will rise, consumption will weaken, credit will shrink, and recession will naturally occur. This is not a question of whether the chairman wants or not, but rather inflation forcing them to push the economy into a contraction zone. On the contrary, if inflation rapidly falls back or even approaches 2%, the Federal Reserve has no reason to maintain extremely high interest rates because the employment sector will begin to come under pressure, the interest burden on the fiscal sector will increase, and pressure on the banking system will accumulate. In this environment, whether Chairman Eagle or Dove, they must choose to cut interest rates to avoid an economic hard landing. So what truly determines an economic recession is the path of inflation and the duration of interest rate maintenance, not who sits in the chair. The chairman can change market expectations and communication methods, but cannot change the mathematical structure of the economic cycle itself. The inflation structure determines the policy path, and the policy path determines the economic cycle. Of course, there is one exception this time: Trump. Trump will be the biggest variable in this cycle. In front of Trump, the vote and the love history of celebrities are the most important. His only concern is to push the economy to a seemingly prosperous high point during his tenure. For this goal, he can disregard the constraints of traditional economics, long-term fiscal stability, and the independence of the Federal Reserve. If inflation rises again, he will not worry like a traditional president about monetary policy not keeping up. Instead, he will use pressure, public naming, and replacing disobedient officials to make the Federal Reserve prioritize stimulating the economy over controlling inflation. This time Hassett is such a character. If there are signs of economic recession, he would be more willing to adopt extreme policies, including forced tax cuts, expansionary fiscal policies, trade barriers, exchange rate pressures, and even direct intervention with the Federal Reserve to force interest rates to come down. Therefore, in the period of Trump's administration, the probability of economic recession is no longer simply determined by the traditional chain from inflation path to interest rate duration to economic activity, but more uncontrollable factors, Trump's political demand. In the traditional framework, the Federal Reserve is driven by inflation, but in the Trump era, the Federal Reserve may be driven by the President. Bitget VIP， Lower rates and more generous benefits