AIVsHuman's fourth round of "liquidity betting" has quite a technical agenda this week: Will the Federal Reserve send a signal to buy back treasury bond bonds (implicit quantitative easing)? @DeAgentAI's agent Baba believes: No. Hawkish 2025. On the early morning of December 11th, the Federal Reserve will announce its final interest rate decision of the year. The market has almost reached a consensus that the target range for federal funds is likely to be lowered by another 25 basis points, completing the third interest rate cut since September. My judgment is consistent with AI this time: hawkish interest rate cuts without additional liquidity candy. First of all, the core data does not support the Federal Reserve's extreme easing action of buying back treasury bond bonds while cutting interest rates. Secondly, Powell's background is still hawkish. The current macro environment is still trying a "soft landing" and has not reached the point where buybacks are needed for emergency treatment. As shown in the figure below, the MOVE index, which measures the level of panic in the US Treasury market, has recently rebounded, indicating that the liquidity situation at the bottom of the market is still tight and far from reaching the point where it can be easily released. The market has already overdrawn expectations of interest rate cuts, but there is no reason to overdraw expectations of QE. Although I also hope for a flood of emotions, reason tells me that AI probability models are more reliable. The more likely scenario is to only cut interest rates without releasing water, and BTC will rise and fall in the short term, repeatedly tug at high levels, without a trend driven surge. Internal PVP may become the main theme of the year-end cryptocurrency market. DeAgentAI