金色财经
金色财经|12月 09, 2025 15:09
[Conference Board: Leading Indicators Decline for the Second Consecutive Month, Growth to Slow by Year-End to Early Next Year] According to a report by Golden Finance, Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager and Head of Business Cycle Indicators at the Conference Board, stated that the U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined again in September, marking the second consecutive month of decline. The overall contraction of the index was primarily driven by weakened consumer and business expectations. Key components dragging down the index included consumer expectations, the ISM New Orders Index, new orders for manufacturing consumer goods and raw materials, initial jobless claims, and the yield curve. However, some components made positive contributions, including stock prices, the Leading Credit Index, and new orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft. The trend of the indicators suggests that U.S. economic activity will slow down by late 2025 to early 2026. Overall, economic growth remains fragile and uneven, with businesses facing dual challenges of tariff policy adjustments and weakening consumer momentum. It is projected that U.S. GDP will grow by 1.8% in 2025 and further slow to 1.5% in 2026.
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