飞凡
飞凡|12月 08, 2025 02:44
The Federal Reserve has now reached a stage where it has to prepare for the next round of liquidity narrative. Unlike QE, which directly stimulates the economy, the Federal Reserve will package their water release behavior more covertly, There is a high probability that some clues will be seen at this FOMC meeting. In fact, the Federal Reserve has already laid the groundwork for addressing liquidity issues. From December 1, FOMC has stopped investing in previously contracted assets when they are due, that is, the principal of institutional bonds/institutional MBS will be returned to treasury bonds, and the maturity of treasury bond will be extended. Subsequently, the New York Federal Reserve trading desk clarified that starting from December, these reinvestments will be undertaken through the purchase of Treasury bonds in the secondary market, and the operational arrangements will be announced on a monthly basis. At the last FOMC, it was mentioned that increasing the proportion of Treasury bonds would give the Federal Reserve greater policy and reserve management flexibility without the need to significantly raise the total reserve requirements. Federal Reserve official Williams also made it clear in his speech in November that when it is assessed that reserves have reached sufficient levels, the next step should be to begin gradual asset purchases. Therefore, in the coming months, there may be something that is not QE but is not much different from QE. The most discussed topic in the market now is RMP, which stands for Reserve Management Purchase. So what is RMP? The official explanation of the Federal Reserve is that as the economy grows, people's demand for money will naturally increase. In order to ensure that there is enough money (reserves) in the banking system to meet daily payments and settlements, the Federal Reserve needs to passively buy some bonds, inject some money into the market, and maintain sufficient liquidity. Its purpose is purely to maintain the operation of the banking system and prevent interest rates from soaring due to insufficient funds. The operation is also very simple, only buying short-term treasury bonds. Why is it essentially similar to QE? Although the Federal Reserve tries to make a clear distinction, the action principles of RMP and QE are the same in the eyes of the market and capital. QE is when the Federal Reserve creates dollars out of thin air and then buys bonds, allowing the market to receive cash. RMP also creates dollars out of thin air and buys bonds to allow the market to receive cash. The result is the same: the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expands, increasing liquidity in the market. For risky assets such as cryptocurrencies and US stocks, as long as the Federal Reserve is buying something, it is injecting liquidity. Whether it is rescuing the economy or maintaining bank operations, as long as the money is injected, it will eventually overflow into asset prices.
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