qinbafrank|Dec 07, 2025 07:01
Seeing many recent comments about the nihilization of the cryptocurrency market, it is essentially a disappointment or even despair that falls far short of expectations. If I had read this tweet last year and accepted the "new normal" of extreme differentiation in the cryptocurrency market, I wouldn't have been disappointed, because without expectations, there is naturally no need for disappointment. The overall market has undergone changes, and the investor group has also changed. Cognition and mentality are no longer familiar to everyone before.
There are two underlying reasons for the coin market:
One reason is that there is no substantial innovation or value implementation. Both the 17 year and 21 year cycles rely on narrative, but there cannot always be narrative.
The second reason is the crazy expansion of the scale of first level crypto VC management in the past 21 years, which has jointly pushed up project valuations with project parties, resulting in a market value of hundreds of millions or billions of dollars, and a huge sell-off from the beginning;
More substantial reasons:
The more mature and effective the market is, the more severe the differentiation becomes. The liquidity of the US stock market is good, but the differentiation of the US stock market is not new today. Decades ago, the US stock market was the rule of 19 (the top 10% of stocks accounted for far more than 90% of the market value), but in recent years it has become even more extreme. With the passage of ETFs, the cryptocurrency market enters a new normal, and differentiation will become increasingly apparent. Efficient markets are becoming increasingly differentiated, while inefficient markets are thriving.
At present, only local hotspots in the cryptocurrency market, or on chain transactions worth tens of thousands of dollars, can generate wealth effects when pushed to several million, tens of millions of dollars, or even higher market values.
But that doesn't mean we have to be very pessimistic. The current situation is a huge tear in the transition from barbarism to compliance. It just proves that the directions we explored before were not reliable, which is a huge cost. But opportunities are also being nurtured:
Like a previous discussion on the future of encryption applications, https://(x.com)/qinbufark/status/1952664519630852249? The tweet's=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A 'discusses that the biggest application scenarios for blockchain technology, token economy, and encrypted assets in the future are not the expected innovative applications native to crypto, but rather from two scenarios:
One is the rapid migration of traditional web2 businesses onto the chain, with the integration of currency, stocks, and contract rights. Tokens will also enjoy the benefits and corresponding rights brought by real businesses, because only businesses that create real value can promote the positive circulation of the token economy. Otherwise, the so-called token economy would still be idle;
Secondly, it is natural for AI to incentivize other bots, agents, and even humans to complete tasks through cryptocurrency. Smart contracts, distributed ledgers, and tokens will be the main ways and media for agent to agent, agent to bot, and bot to bot interactions in the future. From this perspective, Crypto may be prepared for a highly digitized society in the future.
From this perspective, I am still looking forward to:
The explosion of DeFi caused by the listing of real assets on the chain;
More high-quality assets on the chain will lead to derivative gameplay;
The real change of the combination of AI and crypto, the arrival of the era of intelligent agent economy;
Stablecoins can truly become the role of the global payment settlement layer.
If you are still confused, go take a look at the speech of SEC Chairman Atkins:
Securities are increasingly being migrated from traditional (i.e. "off chain") databases to blockchain (i.e. "on chain") ledger systems. On chain securities also have the potential to reshape various aspects of the securities market, including the issuance, trading, holding, and use of securities. For example, on chain securities can automatically distribute dividends through smart contracts. tokenization can also enhance capital formation, transforming previously illiquid assets into tradable investment opportunities. Blockchain technology is expected to expand the various new uses of securities, giving rise to many market activities that have not been imagined by current committee rules
Autonomous AI agents can execute transactions, allocate capital, and manage risks at a speed that humans cannot match, and embed securities compliance mechanisms at the code level. ”
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