QCP: Bitcoin is temporarily stable, and future leadership changes at the Federal Reserve will be the focus

According to BlockBeats, on December 3rd, QCP released a daily market observation stating that after Monday's sharp fluctuations, the market has entered a wait-and-see state, appearing stable on the surface but far from relaxing. After rebounding 5% from the low of $86000, Bitcoin quietly consolidated around the median of 90000; Meanwhile, the stock and foreign exchange markets remain floating ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, where data is scarce but political influence is strong. Under the surface calm, the market is clearly preparing for the next round of catalytic factors. The leadership of the Federal Reserve has become the focus The next market catalyst is increasingly likely to come from the Federal Reserve, especially its new leaders. The bet on rapid market changes shows a probability of about 85% for Kevin Hassett to become the next Federal Reserve chairman, and Trump is expected to officially confirm it early next year. At this time, the transition of the leadership is in a fragile stage of monetary policy, which raises questions in the market about how the new leadership may affect the Federal Reserve's response mechanism. Miran will resign in January 2026 Bostic will resign in February Powell will step down in May This series of changes may make the FOMC lean towards a more dovish stance than market habits. Next week's FOMC: Limited information, high risk The upcoming FOMC meeting has added new variables. During the conference, there will be no new CPI or NFP data, making the visibility of policy makers much lower than usual. Nevertheless, the futures market has priced the probability of a 25 basis point insurance rate cut next week at 90%. The market's focus is shifting from simple inflation data to governance, policy orientation, and institutional direction. Cryptocurrency market: temporarily eased, but problem unresolved A major source of anxiety over the weekend has temporarily been relieved. Strategy raised approximately $1.4 billion through issuing stocks, extending its operating capital to approximately 21 months and increasing mNAV to approximately 1.14. The management reiterated that BTC will only be sold when mNAV is below 1.0. Short term market sentiment has therefore stabilized, but structural pressures still keep the market alert. The next key risk event is the MSCI index component qualification review (January 15th), which may still trigger significant fluctuations in Strategy related fund flows. Current status At present, encrypted assets remain relatively stable, but belong to the "tension type stability", waiting for more clear signals. In the context of limited macro catalytic factors and increasing uncertainty among the leadership of the Federal Reserve, digital assets are actually in a state of suspension until policy makers release the next clear guidance.