
Dan Gambardello|12月 01, 2025 03:08
Not sure where the short term takes us, but here’s an extensive look at why I’m not going anywhere, and why I’m positioning myself in the best way I can for what’s coming in crypto.
I’m not bullish for no reason.
There are reasons. A lot of them.
And in this game, I think patient capital wins. This is just my crypto journey.
Fed rate cuts likely for December
Cheaper capital incoming
QT ends Dec 1
Liquidity drain finally stops
PMI cycle expansion coming
Historically when risk assets explode
QE revival set for Q1 2026
Fresh money printing on deck (see Ray Dalio’s “easing into a bubble”)
Global liquidity at all-time highs
80%+ of major economies are easing
U.S. stimulus likely
$600B+ potential retail inflow
TGA drain underway
$100–150B liquidity release
Canada restarting QE
Adds to global liquidity wave
Global M2 exploding
Monetary expansion everywhere
DXY weakening
Capital rotating toward risk
Truflation cooling
Green light for cuts
Labor market softening (just right)
Controlled slowdown, no panic
ISM manufacturing ready to expand
Growth mode loading
U.S. economy projected to re-accelerate
2026–27 boom setup
Pro-crypto Fed chair likely
Dovish, crypto-positive replacement
Market Structure Bill advancing
Institutional unlock
U.S. deregulation wave coming
Clearer rules → more adoption
ETF inflows set to rebound
Post-dip reversal coming
BTC dominance dipping on fear
Capital quietly preparing to rotate to alts
10Y yields falling
Flows shifting toward risk assets
Plus the stuff almost nobody is talking about:
RRP drained to zero
The $2.5T liquidity buffer is gone
Fed balance sheet about to slope up (even slightly)
Direction matters more than level
Net Liquidity inflecting higher
Balance sheet – TGA – RRP all flipping bullish
Fiscal dominance kicking in
Deficits + interest costs force QE 2.0
Japan YCC unwind = liquidity leak
Capital flowing outward
China stimulus wave
Liquidity spilling into global risk
ECB pivot already underway
Eurozone easing adds fuel
Corporate buybacks re-accelerating
Cheap rates → more buybacks
Household liquidity still elevated
Retail dry powder intact
AI Capex demand shock
Productivity boom → PMI expansion
PMI cycle expansion coming
Historically when risk assets explode. Put this twice because it’s one of my favorites ;)(Dan Gambardello)
Timeline