Phyrex|Nov 22, 2025 18:25
As expected, after Williams' speech, the U.S. stock market rebounded, the VIX dropped significantly, and investor sentiment eased. Even during the weekend, when liquidity is as low as a dog, BTC managed to hold a slight rebound. Although buying power is still insufficient, at least it has temporarily stopped falling. If it continues to drop over the weekend, who knows how far it might go.
The main concern in the market right now is the fear surrounding the Fed. It's not just about whether there will be a rate cut in December, but the worry that the Fed's "dragging its feet" could lead the U.S. into an economic recession. After all, everything from corporate bankruptcies to rising unemployment rates signals potential risks. Thankfully, Nvidia's earnings report shows that the AI bubble can still hold up for a bit.
The December rate cut is essentially a signal from the Fed that it doesn’t want the U.S. to fall into economic decline. Even if it’s a case of "mending the fence after the sheep are lost," they still need to fix it. However, if the Fed continues to maintain high interest rates and only plans to cut rates twice by 2026, it poses a significant threat to the market.
Looking back at Bitcoin's data, turnover remains high today. It seems that quite a few investors see this rebound as the last chance to exit, which is why we’re seeing some loss-making investors reducing their positions. Especially in the past few days, those who tried to buy the dip—whether they’re in profit or loss—have been reducing their holdings quite strongly. Next, we’ll have to see how the U.S. stock market reacts on Monday.
Although turnover is quite high, it hasn’t had much impact on BTC’s token structure. We can still see that the two loss-making support levels haven’t shown signs of collapsing, especially the $11.2K level, where over 570,000 BTC are still concentrated. I didn’t expect that.
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