Phyrex|Nov 21, 2025 20:46
It's really a case of both rising and falling for the Federal Reserve. Just after Powell announced that the Fed wouldn't cut interest rates in December, the market has been in a downward position almost continuously. Investors are more concerned that high interest rates may trigger an economic recession, and both the US stock market and BTC have experienced significant declines. Today, one of the core decision-makers of the Federal Reserve, Williams, suddenly spoke up, indicating that given the current slightly tight monetary policy, there is still room for further adjustment in the short term.
This statement has been interpreted by the market as supporting the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December, and Williams' reason is that he is more concerned about the pressure on the labor market, which is consistent with what I have been saying about the huge employment pressure in the United States. Of course, this does not mean that the Federal Reserve will definitely cut interest rates in December, but at least he has seen the path to a rate cut.
After Williams' speech, CME's probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December increased to around 72%, and the Fed's mouthpiece Nick not only forwarded Williams' remarks, but also directly stated that Williams intended to cut interest rates in December and indicated that Williams was Powell's senior assistant, implying that this may have already obtained Powell's consent.
The market has also rebounded as a result. Although the US stock market, especially the technology stock market, has not yet erased yesterday's decline, it has provided investors with confidence. More importantly, tomorrow is the weekend. Although it may not be of great help to the US stock market, it may be of great help in easing the panic of cryptocurrency investors.
Looking back at the data of Bitcoin, it almost fell below $80000 during the day, causing panic in the market again, and the turnover rate returned to a high point. On the same day, Williams' speech pulled back some BTC's downward trend. From the data, it still seems that the panic was caused by short-term bargain hunters, while the loss making investors who were trapped at high levels did not show much movement, and the same was true for earlier investors.
At present, the market is in an extremely uncertain situation. Unlike the US stock market, even when liquidity is poor, Williams' speech has concentrated the limited liquidity for the US stock market. Cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, tend to lag behind, but at least it has eased the panic. The weekend should not be too bad.
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