TraderS | 缺德道人|Nov 19, 2025 14:24
Tonight, the market's attention is focused on two major events: the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting at 3am and Nvidia's financial report at 5am. At this moment, both long and short sides are in a subtle stalemate, and neither side dares to easily break the balance before the information is released. Some media even referred to Nvidia's financial report as the "only redemption in the market".
All of this stems from the current global market being in a state of near vacuum - macroeconomic benefits have failed, liquidity tools have not yet been implemented, and various risk assets are declining synchronously. The market urgently needs an anchor point, a reason that can make people believe again that the market is still safe. Even if the reason may not be solid, as long as someone comes forward to give an explanation, investors who have been tormented by consecutive days of decline may be willing to temporarily believe it.
Now, only Nvidia, the Federal Reserve, and the political figure Trump can play this role. And we need to break down the risks one by one among these three.
For the US stock market, the biggest uncertainty currently comes from recent hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve officials, but this has nothing to do with Nvidia. As long as NVIDIA's financial report is strong enough tonight, funds are likely to quickly shift from macro panic to the deterministic logic of technology stocks. The selling pressure in the technology sector over the past three weeks has been mainly due to passive portfolio adjustments and structural valuation corrections. Once Nvidia's supply chain or performance guidance releases positive signals, there may be a situation of passive capital replenishment.
Of course, we cannot expect Nvidia alone to reverse the overall trend. Even if the financial report is impressive, it can repair more emotions than structure. But in the current situation where all assets are falling, the market desperately needs a pivot for emotional reversal. As long as Nvidia can maintain confidence and step on the brakes for risky assets trapped in a 'death spiral', it is considered to have completed the task. The true force of trend reversal still lies in the hands of the Federal Reserve.
As for the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, as they are from the last meeting, the content itself is no longer fresh. Against the backdrop of multiple voting committee members' frequent "hawks" in recent times, this summary is neither more hawkish nor more likely to stir up greater waves. But if the expression can be slightly biased, it may still provide some psychological comfort to the market. The ideal state for tonight is that this summary is' plain, boring, and full of nonsense '. As long as it does not create additional panic or further dampen emotions, it is considered qualified.
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