Why is Trump so calm recently? Because Trump is also waiting for data and playing rhythm. In the past two weeks, more than one Fed director has been hawking, and Trump has been shouting about the continuous adjustment of the US stock market. A friend asked Trump today, but he seems unusually quiet? In the final analysis, as shown in the following figures, Trump's approval rate has plunged significantly since late October. Let's talk in detail: 1. Figure 1 and Figure 1 are polls conducted by two different institutions. The first one is conducted by RASMAmericaEN, which has a high degree of concern. The specific support rates of the two institutions are different, but the trends shown in the polls are consistent. Trump's support rate has declined rapidly since late October. The consequences of this are: the Democratic Party won all levels of elections in Virginia in early November, won the second gubernatorial election with a huge double-digit advantage in New Jersey, easily won the redistricting referendum in California, and defeated two Republican incumbents in the statewide election in Georgia. Even Zohran Mamdani, who ran as an independent candidate, easily won the New York City mayoral election. This undoubtedly sounded an alarm for Trump. 2. Then take a closer look at Figure 2. The sharp decline in the public's support for Trump mainly focuses on inflation/price, employment and economy, tax and expenditure. At the same time, on inflation and price issues, the public's recognition rate has declined the most. That is to say, the current public's dissatisfaction with Trump is in the domestic economy, and more specifically, with inflation and price. This shows that in recent two weeks, more than one Fed director expressed hawkish views and positions on inflation, but Trump or Besant did not explicitly oppose and refute them. Their silent attitude then gave Federal Reserve officials space to express their stance. 3. Of course, Trump's focus in the near future is not on this: Focus on negotiating with China in mid to late October; In the first ten days of November, we focused on ending the suspension of the government (you should remember that Trump tried several times to directly repeal the obstruction rules of procedure, and convened the Republican members of the Senate twice); In the past week, the focus has been on the issue of Venezuela and the Epstein Papers. But it cannot be said that he has no energy to take into account the hawkish performance of the Federal Reserve and market weakness, based on his past performance. So, as mentioned above, the decline in approval ratings and the public's concern about inflation have forced him to choose to shut up at this time. 4. Trump is also waiting for data Because he also has no data to prove whether the inflation in the United States is rising or slowly slowing down in a controllable state. During the 40 day data vacuum period, everyone is in a fog, so the Federal Reserve chose to slow down the pace (at least on the lips at the moment), the market was more frightened, and Trump chose to keep silent. Therefore, as I mentioned earlier, the inflation trend has become more critical: if the inflation trend continues to be lower than expected, the market sentiment can be improved, and the reason for the Federal Reserve to continue to be tough will be weakened, then Trump should jump out and start to make statements and exert pressure; However, it was higher than expected, the Federal Reserve continued to be tough, and Trump was not easy to put pressure on it publicly. 5. Trump's recent action? Support rate is the lifeline of political leaders, without support rate, everything is meaningless. So recently he has been trying to do some actions: 1) At the beginning of the month, the crackdown on drugs and selfishness in Venezuela was upgraded to the "Spear of the South". In addition to reorganizing the demands in the backyard every week, drug and immigration issues are also topics of basic concern in the country and a way to divert domestic attention; 2) Last weekend, the food tariff exemption policy was announced, which will apply to trade agreements already reached with the United States. The purpose is to lower food prices, thereby reducing inflation. It is estimated that there may be multiple commodity exemption policies that are highly related to people's livelihoods in the future; 3) On the 9th, it was proposed to issue tariff dividend checks to the public at https://(x.com)/qinbufark/status/1989962418680992198? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A also has this reason. The motivation is to pressure the Supreme Court, with the intention of increasing support for next year's midterm elections. The prerequisite for this tariff dividend check is that it can really successfully pressure the Supreme Court, and if everything goes smoothly, it is estimated that it will not be implemented until the middle of next year. As discussed earlier, the government can sign the document to end the shutdown, but it will take at least two weeks to fully restore normal operations and even longer for liquidity to fully recover. I believe Besant has a deeper understanding of these than anyone, and he will also suggest when Trump will happen. After all, the President needs to get twice the result with half the effort. We also need to talk about the issue of statements and policy pace here. Only by confirming that inflation (October PCE announced on the 26th, and November CPI announced on December 10th) can be controlled, will the economic and fiscal efforts be more effective. If inflation is uncontrollable, then take action to reduce inflation first, and then wait for inflation to peak and fall back As mentioned at the end of last week's tweet: If the future inflation is lower than expected, the sentiment of the cryptocurrency market will also boost the upward trend. If the inflation is higher than expected, the expectation will be even worse and even lower. If it's the latter, we have to go back to early September here https://(x.com)/qinba frank/status/196268669268400973? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A mentioned in the chat about the possibility of returning to a pause after interest rate cuts, "Wait until inflation peaks and falls in the future, the Federal Reserve will pause for the second time before returning to interest rate cuts, the yield curve will be controlled, and a large-scale upward trend will appear It is estimated that Trump Besant's subsequent actions on interest rate and capital market will also refer to the pace of inflation trend to a certain extent. Of course, the further he goes, the greater the rhythm of his statements and the intensity of his movements.