The encryption cycle has completely changed. The previous three cycles were a four-year cycle, and using the movements of the previous three cycles to carve the sword of this cycle is unlikely to produce it. The strong involvement of institutions in BTC/ETH is a major factor; The super surplus of VC coins and Meme is another major factor; On the macro level, it is also more bizarre (extreme good and bad coexist), which makes market changes less certain. There must be a cycle, but it will not be the same as the previous four-year cycle; The shanzhai season is only localized; There will be no bull market like before, nor will there be a bear market like before. It is difficult to define the current stage, and it is impossible to accurately define whether this is the end of a bull market or the beginning of a bear market. This is a completely different bull and bear market, with even blurred boundaries. To elaborate, regarding the four-year cycle. The traditional four-year cycle mainly relies on the halving event of front-end BTC to create supply shocks, with the early halving dropping from 50 BTC/block to 25 BTC, resulting in a 50% impact on the circulating supply; Only 3% will be halved in 2024. Half price event+retail FOMO+loose liquidity=driving the artificial bull market of the previous cycle. However, the 2025 cycle has "transformed": BTC has already surpassed its previous high before halving in 2024 ($73000 vs. $69000 in 2021), without replicating the typical "18 month surge collapse" pattern after halving. The first important influencing factor is the strong intervention of institutions. The cumulative inflow of BTC ETFs in 2024-2025 exceeds $60 billion, gradually shifting market drivers from retail FOMO to institutional holdings. The gameplay of institutions is different from that of retail investors. Institutions and enterprises consider BTC/ETH as "digital gold/infrastructure assets", with more stable demand but slower upward movement. This smoothed out the volatility: achieving a 90 day reduction in volatility from historical 60-120% to 25-45%. The historical cycle relied on retail speculation (such as 2017 ICO, 2021 DeFi), but now we have entered the era of "asset allocation". In the 2021 cycle, the dominant rate of BTC decreased from 40% to 35% (followed by the launch of the knockoff season); In 2025, BTC will remain stable at 53-59% without significant fluctuations. Due to the expectation of an upward trend in BTC prices driven by institutions, BTC holders are unwilling to exchange their BTC for higher risk altcoins (in order to gain higher returns). The strength of BTC prices reduces the motivation for BTC holders to participate in altcoins, further reducing the buying and liquidity of altcoins. This rotation was one of the most important driving forces behind the rise of altcoins in the previous two cycles. Although the cycle will not disappear, it has already deformed and the psychological anchor of halving has always existed in the cryptocurrency circle, but macro/institutional factors dominate (the correlation coefficient between BTC and Nasdaq has increased from 0.3 to 0.7). The gameplay of institutions is not about chasing high prices, but about asset allocation. In the emotion driven cycle, there is an increasing proportion of "asset allocation driven". The second aspect is that there is a super surplus of VC coins and memes. VC coins/meme coins are essentially contenders for "liquidity", and this super surplus state has led to the delay of the knockoff season and the continuous fragmentation of the cycle, with multiple scenarios appearing simultaneously; BTC/ETH obtains funds from institutions/enterprises/large investors; VC coins and MEME coins compete for liquidity from VC, large investors, and retail investors, resulting in increasingly dispersed liquidity and insufficient synergy. Even if lucky, there will still be a knockoff season in the future, which will only be a carnival for some knockoffs. The third aspect is that the macro aspect is also more bizarre (extreme good and bad coexist), which makes market changes less certain. In 2025, there will be a macro duality, on the one hand, liquidity will begin to expand (such as the Federal Reserve ending QT and M2 exceeding $22 trillion), and AI fever will rise; On the other hand, geopolitical/policy risks (such as tariff wars and persistent inflation) have led to a surge in the correlation between cryptocurrencies. BTC and DXY are negatively correlated, but the volatility is amplified. 2025 is the most bizarre cycle, with historical seasonal effects. The question now is, will there be a lag in the cycle? Will this cycle be extended from 2025 to 2026? Of course, if there is a macro recession or sudden geopolitical risks in 2026, all expectations will lose their meaning.