律动BlockBeats
律动BlockBeats|11月 14, 2025 11:20
Analysis: The decline of Bitcoin is caused by factors such as the tightening of liquidity in the United States and continued selling pressure from American investors According to BlockBeats, on November 14th, XWIN Research, a subsidiary of CryptoQuant, released an analysis stating that Bitcoin's recent drop below $100000 is not simply a market fluctuation, but rather a result of multiple structural pressures centered around the United States. The on chain data strongly shows that American investors are the dominant force in the current downward trend. Firstly, the Coinbase premium index has been significantly negative for several consecutive weeks, indicating that American investors are selling far more aggressively than buying from Asia or Europe. This is consistent with the recent recurring trend: Bitcoin rebounded during the Asian session, but experienced a significant reversal during the US trading session. Secondly, long-term holders (LTH) of all age groups are selling synchronously. Analysts including Will Clemente pointed out that selling pressure does not come from a specific group, but rather appears simultaneously among long-term holders who have held for 6 months, 18 months, 3 years, or even 7 years. This situation is extremely rare and strongly suggests that US investors are undergoing year-end tax optimization. Fidelity has also confirmed that many US LTHs are locking in profits to complete annual position settlements. Thirdly, the US government shutdown has led to a severe tightening of liquidity. With federal spending forced to pause, the government has seen a rare fiscal surplus, draining billions of dollars in liquidity from the system. Combined with the market's cooling expectations of a December interest rate cut, the overall risk appetite of the United States has significantly declined. The US stock market experienced a general decline, with cryptocurrency related stocks plummeting by 10-20%, and Bitcoin also experiencing a similar liquidity driven pullback. Overall, these factors form a clear narrative: the current adjustment is mainly led by the United States. The structural selling of long-term holders, the decrease in liquidity caused by fiscal tightening, and the continued weak market conditions during the US period have collectively amplified market volatility. As liquidity gradually recovers in the coming weeks, market conditions may stabilize, but short-term pressures will still be heavily influenced by the dynamics of the US market.
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