RamenPanda|Nov 13, 2025 22:12
Coatue October 16 AI public market update report: AI is not a foam, but the early stage of the industrial revolution
Key insight: AI foam? After studying 30 foam for 400 years, Coatue believes that AI is in the "displacement" stage and its valuation is reasonable (NASDAQ P/E~28x vs 90x in 2000).
Probability:>66% "AI abundance" (productivity surge, low inflation),<33% "AI liquidation" (foam burst).
AI shares exceed S&P500 by 160%, with the adoption rate ranging from 5% to 13%, which penetrates PC/Internet but is faster.
By 2035, the annual revenue of the AI industry is expected to reach 1.9 trillion yuan, ROIC 20%。
Complete report: https://drive. (google.com)/file/d/1Y2CLckBIjfjGClkNikvfOnZ0WyLZhkrT/view
1/5
Market performance: Leading in energy, semiconductor, and cloud infrastructure. Inflation expectations remain stable at around 3%. The technology P/E ratio is reasonable and supported by profits. The top 10 companies account for 77% of GDP and have diversified profits.
Other Trends: Emerging Leaders in AI Power; The 'infinite circulation of money' is sustainable; IPO slump<60 vs dot com>500; High concentration=maturity.
2/5
Summary of 18 charts in the report (in tabular format):
Figure 1: AI continues to drive the market higher - AI stocks surpass S&P 500 by 160%, and the "AI premium" has fundamentals.
Figure 2: The emergence of new AI leadership positions - energy/semiconductor/cloud leading, AI power replacing software.
Figure 3: Inflation expectations easing -2025~3%, easing interest rates.
Figure 4: Reasonable valuation gap between technology and non technology - historical norms of gap, profit support.
3/5
Figure 5: The media said AI foam - Cowate disagreed - compared with the real adoption&ROI.
Figure 6: foam cycle - AI at displacement stage.
Figure 7: Are AI leaders too big? -The top 10 account for 77% of GDP and generate global profits.
Figure 8: AI adoption is slightly slower -5% to 13%, short-term platform.
Figure 9: Supplier Financing "Infinite Money Cycle" - Sustainable Models such as OpenAI/Nvidia.
Figure 10: Not all cycles of foam - AI such as Internet/cloud.
4/5
Figure 11: Early AI but with a steep penetration curve.
Figure 12: Market Concentration Non Risk - Signal Maturity.
Figure 13: Multiple expansion<dot com -28x vs 90x.
Figure 14: Valuation Health in 1999 vs. 2025-28x vs. 67x, Strong Cash Flow.
Figure 15: Profit supported investment -1.9 trillion yuan and 20% ROIC by 2035.
Figure 16: IPO slump -<60 vs 500+.
Figure 17: Leverage Regression - Retail Risk.
Figure 18: Two futures of AI - betting on abundance>66%.
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