Recently, I have seen many investors questioning whether the expectation of a shutdown has been realized, and the market has started to transition from positive expectations to negative ones, especially with BTC falling on Tuesday, which has led some investors to believe that this is another stage of Sell The News. However, I have a slightly different view because after the shutdown ends, it will have a positive impact on liquidity, including: Firstly, the moment fiscal spending restarts is a real "immediate stimulus" of gold and silver. During the shutdown, the US federal government suspended or postponed billions of dollars in wages, contract payments, research budgets, and welfare expenditures, which were not "cancelled" but "accumulated". Once operations resume, these funds will enter the real economic system in large quantities in the short term, from retroactive salaries for federal employees, to contractor payments, to the restart of welfare programs, all of which are immediate inflows of funds that form consumption and cash flow. This is not expected, but actual liquidity that will be credited to the account. To put it simply, once the shutdown is over, the government will immediately begin allocating funds, whether to suppliers or individuals, to make up for the lack of purchasing power over the past 43 days. This funding is likely to become a direct injection of liquidity into the market in the short term, as all delayed expenditures are necessary and not optional. Federal employees who receive retroactive pay will not keep it. They have already been burdened with rent, loans, and daily expenses. Government contractors will not lie down when they receive the payment. They have already advanced cash flow and owed the supply chain. The resumption of welfare programs will also be immediately spent by low-income groups. That is to say, these funds will not slowly drip into the economy, but will quickly return to the real economic system in a "concentrated release" manner, forming an accelerated purchasing power shock in the short term. For the market, this is equivalent to a small round of fiscal stimulus, with consumer recovery, corporate cash flow repair, easing pressure on banks, and a decrease in demand for short-term US dollars. The flow speed of the entire capital chain will significantly increase. So, the resumption of the shutdown is not just "good news", but rather a tangible amount of funds that has been accumulated for 43 days and will quickly flow back into the system in the short term. That's why ending the shutdown is essentially an incremental injection of liquidity. Secondly, there will be a marginal easing in the pace of bond issuance between TGA and the Ministry of Finance, resulting in a net release of short-term liquidity. During the shutdown period, the Ministry of Finance was forced to compress some operations, and the TGA passively declined, releasing liquidity from the government to the market. After the shutdown ended, although the Ministry of Finance gradually replenished TGA, it usually adopted a more moderate pace and prioritized the restoration of government operational expenditures. Spending first and replenishing later is equivalent to expanding net fiscal investment in the short term, which is particularly beneficial for the US dollar system and short-term funding. To put it more clearly, during the shutdown, the Ministry of Finance had no money to spend and could only use the cash in the national treasury for external purposes, which was equivalent to squeezing the money in the government account into the market. After the shutdown ended, although the Ministry of Finance had to make up for this money, it would not drain the market all at once. On the contrary, it will first activate all government spending and then gradually replenish it. This becomes a net investment in the market. Thirdly, the disappearance of tail risk and the improvement of risk appetite itself is an increase in "shadow liquidity". Shutdown means political dysfunction, and rating risks, institutional concerns, and investment freezes will amplify demand for the US dollar, causing funds to lean towards conservatism. After the shutdown ends, this tail risk is suppressed, and the behavior of banks, enterprises, and institutions immediately changes, with financing recovery, bond issuance recovery, approval recovery, and leverage recovery, all of which will drive up the flow speed of real liquidity and shadow liquidity. The improvement of risk appetite is itself a reactivation of liquidity. Simply put, once the government shuts down, the entire market will automatically enter defensive mode. Banks will reduce lending, companies will not dare to issue bonds, cross-border funds will slow down, and even internal approvals of large institutions will be frozen, because no one is willing to take on additional risks in the context of 'abnormal operation of the US government'. In this environment, the demand for US dollars will suddenly rise, and everyone will compete for liquidity, US dollars, and short-term safe assets, ultimately leading to a slower turnover of funds in the market. Even if the Federal Reserve does not raise interest rates, financial conditions will be passively tightened. And once the shutdown is over, the tail risk is immediately eliminated, and risk behavior immediately switches back from "defense" to "normal". Banks resume normal lending quotas, corporate bond issuances are instantly unfrozen, funds can re approve investment and financing projects, insurance funds are reallocated, cross-border capital returns to normal declaration pace, and the market no longer needs to hoard US dollars as a safety cushion. Overall, the end of the shutdown has led to a decrease in risk premium, which in turn stimulates an improvement in the financing environment and drives more capital flows, resulting in a comprehensive increase in the liquidity speed of the real economy and financial markets. So I don't think the market has completely traded this matter, nor do I think the end of the shutdown is just a short-term Sell The News. On the contrary, I tend to believe that this is a process of switching from "expected improvement" to "real liquidity entry", where short-term fluctuations do not affect long-term trends, and the real stimulus is the return of funds and the resumption of government activities after the shutdown ends, which will gradually be reflected in the market in the coming weeks. This is the most genuine benefit for the risk market, as it is not driven by emotions or narratives, but by the substantial improvement composed of three true "sources of liquidity": government spending, TGA operational rhythm, and institutional risk appetite. So the end of the shutdown is not a one-time benefit, but a fiscal recovery period that lasts for weeks or even months. During this period, previously suppressed funds will re-enter the economic cycle, frozen financing activities will return to normal, and tight short-term liquidity will significantly ease. This structural improvement will make the underlying funding environment of the market healthier and provide more stable carrying capacity for risk assets. So, what the market is seeing now is only the first step, and the true funding effect has not yet been fully reflected. With the comprehensive launch of government spending, the return of various types of debts, the steady progress of bond issuance, and the disappearance of tail risks, the performance of the risk market in the coming weeks is more likely to shift from "emotion led" to "liquidity led". This is a trend that deserves more attention, and it is also the core value of the end of this shutdown for the entire market. This article is sponsored by @ Bitget | Save the most transaction fees, receive the most gifts, and become a VIP on Bitget