One of the data points in history that has never been proven wrong is the amount of BTC held for over a year. This data has been emphasized repeatedly, and from my observations over the past two years, a significant portion of these long-term holders are likely the BTC reserves on exchanges. After all, over the past six months, the correlation with exchange reserves has been quite high. When I looked at it last week, it wasn’t very clear—it was highly likely to be accumulation, but it also looked like distribution, right at a turning point. Now, it’s obvious that it’s distribution, and every time there’s distribution, it often corresponds to a significant opportunity for BTC price increases. This time, I feel the main reason for the drop is the government shutdown and the panic triggered by Powell’s remarks, especially with the shutdown hitting a historic high. As I mentioned before, the end of the shutdown will have an impact on risk markets. So from my personal perspective, this drop feels more like an emotional reaction rather than a systemic risk. Sponsored by @Bitget｜Save the most on fees, grab the best rewards, and become a VIP on Bitget!